Do flu shots work?Thursday, October 11, 2007
Flu Shot Proven To Be Ineffective....Again.
In quick succession, the view that influenza shots yield life-saving
benefits for elderly people has come under serious attack and received
fresh support in recent weeks.
One group of experts, writing in the October issue of Lancet
Infectious Diseases, argued that the mortality benefits of flu shots
for the elderly have been greatly exaggerated because of a subtle bias
and other methodologic problems in many of the relevant studies. "The
remaining evidence base is currently insufficient to indicate the
magnitude of the mortality benefit, if any, that elderly people derive
from the vaccination programme," says the analysis by Lone Simonsen,
PhD, of George Washington University in Washington, DC, and colleagues
Offering a sharp critique of the evidence, the authors of the study
offered several reasons for questioning the notion that flu
immunization saves lives in the elderly population:
1. Even thought vaccination coverage among the elderly has increased
from 15% to 65% since 1980, the overall mortality due to pneumonia and
influenza in elderly people has increased in that period.
2. Few randomized, placebo-controlled trials have examined flu vaccine
effectiveness in elderly people. The largest and best study, done in
the Netherlands, showed a 50% reduction in confirmed flu cases among
all the volunteers, but the reduction for those older than 70 was only
23%. There was no significant reduction in influenza-like illness.
3. A number of investigators have reported finding evidence of flu
vaccination benefits in the elderly by analyzing the records of large
healthcare organizations. But these studies typically are flawed in
that investigators looked for an effect on all-cause mortality, a
nonspecific outcome, rather than on lab-confirmed flu.
4, Further, many such studies may be marred by a subtle selection
bias, wherein relatively healthy older people were more likely to be
vaccinated, thereby making vaccination look more beneficial than it
really was. A further problem is that cohort studies typically have
defined the flu season arbitrarily as December through March, rather
than on the basis of flu surveillance.
COMMENT: In 2005, the Cochrane Collaboration reviewed studies that
involved nearly 500,000 people and concluded that the vaccine was "no
better than placebo" in all three age groups for which the shot is
advocated: babies, middle aged adults and the elderly. I discussed
this in detail in my book, FOWL!
How many more studies will it take to prove the flu shot doesn't work
and there are better ways to stay healthy in the winter?
Thanks Vince