Leonard,
Thanks for the clarification.
So if I understand correctly, given my numbers and assuming I were to
get a RP , my chance of recurrence would be about 3%. Is that correct?
Also, when one says "recurrence" where is the locus? I guess it could
be prostate,lymph or bone or all?
Sy
In article <j6qdnSEFkbf2QPjanZ2dnUVZ_hGdnZ2d@comcast . com >, Leonard
Evens <len@math.northwestern.edu> wrote:
> Sy wrote:
> > I am beginning to understand the Partin Tables but have some questions:
> >
> > My "numbers" for purposes of the Partin Tables are:
> >
> > PSA-3.14
> > Gleason-6
> > Clinical Stage-T1c
> >
> > Based upon my numbers, the Partin tables show:
> >
> >
> > Organ confined -88 (86-90)
> > Extraprostatic extension-11 (10-13)
> > Seminal vesicle- 1 (0-1)
> > Lymph node -0 (0-0)
> >
> > As I understand it, that means that the probabliity that the cancer is
> > "organ confined" is %88, "extraprostatic" %11 and so forth. Obviously
> > the further the cancer has spread from the prostate itself, the more
> > "serious" the cancer probably is.
> >
> > So in trying to understand these numbers, if we have prostate cancer
> > our wish would be that it be "organ confined" because we all know that
> > very many men die of other causes while having "organ confined"
> > prostate cancer. In my case it appears that as long as all my numbers
> > (PSA,Gleason, Clinical Stage) remain the same then we can say that the
> > odds that my cancer is "organ confined" is about 90%-9 out of 10.
> >
> > Would appreciate any feedback regarding my analysis of how I understand
> > the Partin tables.
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > Sy
>
> You have to understand how the Partin tables wer constructed. They took
> a large number of men whose diagnoses before surgery was known. They
> then analyzed their post surgical pathology reports. So for men whose
> cancer was diagnosed as T1c and had a PSA before surgery in a certain
> range (indicated in the tables) that contained yours (3.4) and for whom
> the Gleason score was 6=3+3, the percentage of cases in which the
> cancer was found to be organ confined was 88 percent, the percentage in
> which there was extraprostatic extension, but no cancer in the seminal
> vesicales was 11 percent, the percentage in which there was cancer in
> the seminal vesicles was 1 percent, and there were no cases observed
> with cancer in the lymph nodes.
>
> But what you have to keep in mind that the pathologist when examining
> your prostate after surgery can only report what he sees. For example,
> some cancer could have escaped the prostate, be somewhere in the sample
> and missed by the pathologist or some cancer might have escaped outside
> the sample examined by the pathologist. Some, but not all of these
> cancers will recur. In addition, not all cancers which the apthologist
> finds have escaped the prostate will recur after treatment. So the
> Partin tables, while helpful, can't be used to determine the risk of
> metastasis at a later date. The only way to do that is to follow a
> large number of men for years and see how often the cancer recurs. Note
> that in such cases, the cancer didn't pop up out of nowhere. It had
> almost certainly already escaped the prostate at the time of surgery
> although not found by the pathologist.
>
> Various researchers have done that work and constructed models from
> which they can, with some degree of confidence, predict the likelihood
> of recurrence within specified time periods. One place you can find a
> reliable calculator of this sort is at the Sloan Kettering website. It
> will give you the likelihood of recurrence based on pre-surgical
> diagnosis and also the risk based on the results following surgery.
>
> In a case like yours, I think you will find that the likelihood of
> non-recurrence within ten years is something like 97 percent.