Re: Lancet: Cannabis use and risk of psychotic or affective mental health outcomes: a systematic revOn Sat, 28 Jul 2007 08:41:13 -0400,"Dr. Zarkov", wrote
> Ollie Clark wrote:
> > Mark Whiteley wrote:
> >>"Phil Stovell" <phil@stovell.org.uk> wrote...
> >>
> >>>It's interesting to note that scientists have calculated the effect. It
> >>>works out as 800 people getting ill, which agrees remarkably well with the
> >>>real figure of 946. If only string theory could make such predictions.
> >>>
> >>>There's still the problem, however, of psychosis rates remaining stable,
> >>>as pointed out by one of the Lancet authors. That needs to be explained.
> >>
> >>Out of 4 million users 946 get ill, that's 4,000,000 /100 * 946..... 0.02 of
> >>people, surely acceptable when compared with other substances.
> >>
> >>I don't think I'm following the maths correctly though. I don't really
> >>understand what the 200% number relates to?? It seems to me that the risk of
> >>developing psychosis is exceptionally small even in the general population,
> >>thus 200% sounds a lot but it is still only a very very small number of
> >>people in reality.
> >
> >
> > AIUI, the risk is increased by that much. For light use the risk is 1.4
> > times and for heavy use the risk is doubled. In other words for very
> > heavy users, the slight risk of any psychotic outcome is doubled.
> >
> >
> >>You've checked the maths Phil and your saying it works out to 800 people
> >>against 946.
> >>
> >>The authors have choosen a number which appears to make the risk look huge.
> ...
>
>
> There is a more fundamental problem with all such studies. Remember
> that they are looking at correlations. A correlation does not in itself
> imply cause and effect. If you do a sufficiently sophisticated
> statistical (multivariate) analysis that accounts for all possible
> confounding factors, you can presumably identify independent
> relationships. The problem is that it is often difficult to identify
> all the possible confounding factors.
>
> It's the same basic argument that associates drugs (including alcohol)
> with crime. But of course people who habitually engage in criminal
> behavior generally have personalities that gravitate toward a number of
> activities, including drug use, smoking, sexual promiscuity, etc., etc.
> The point is that the drug use and other activities are a result of
> the underlying personality disorder. One does not generally cause
> another in itself--drugs do not themselves cause the criminal activity
> any more than smoking does.
That is called a risk taking personality that indulges in those
behaviors along with people who ride motorcycles, fly experimental
aircraft and who long ago crawled out of the sea and attempted to
live on the land, later on standing up and walking however poorly
on two legs to better see the lay of the land.
I don't think it is in any way a personality disorder though
it frequently leads to problems as a consequence but then so does
living within the mental and physical limitation of the head.
Eating too much and breeding too often, driving too far to
get to work and not getting enough exercise are the most common
things seen among the herd/
>
> Similarly there may well be some unknown underlying factor(s) associated
> with both psychosis and marijuana use in this population.
Well of course they would have to be crazy to use illegal drugs
would they not? Think about the legal consequences and you will see
that they must be mad(or risk takers).
later
bliss -- C O C O A Powered... (at california dot com)
--
bobbie sellers - a retired nurse in San Francisco
"It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.
It is by the beans of cocoa that the thoughts acquire speed,
the thighs acquire girth, the girth become a warning.
It is by theobromine alone I set my mind in motion."
--from Someone else's Dune spoof ripped to my taste.