Re: Smoke one for the Wilkins Ice Shelf
"Tom S." <t.m.s.work@cox,net > wrote in message
news:WgWHj.1754$3N1.1237@newsfe17.lga...
>
> "Miss Elaine Eos" <Misc@your-pants.PlayNaked,com > wrote in message
> news:Misc-370073.16491930032008@news.sf.sbcglobal,net ...
>> In article <k5VHj.5949$bC6.843@trnddc08>,
>> "Paul M. Cook" <pmcook@gte,net > wrote:
>>
>>> Tom S the climatologist. The man who wouldn't know a scientific peer
>>> review
>>> from a porno magazine.
>
> Like Paul knows his ass from a hole in the ground (not that there's much
> difference there).
> http :// www .independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1963
>
>
> Maybe Paul can explain why the "peer review" that stated overwhelming
> support for AGW was found to be bogus?
>
> "Gore says:
>
> "There was a massive study of every scientific article in a peer reviewed
> article written on global warming in the last ten years. They took a big
> sample of 10 percent, 928 articles. And you know the number of those that
> disagreed with the scientific consensus that we're causing global warming
> and that is a serious problem out of the 928: Zero."
>
> Anyone familiar with the scientific literature knows better. The study
> that he is referring to was conducted by social scientist Dr. Naomi
> Oreske. Another social scientist, Dr. Benny Peiser of the UK, attempted to
> verify Oreske's study. The following is his summary:
>
> "I replicated her study in order to assess the accuracy of its results.
> All abstracts listed on the ISI databank for 1993 to 2003 using the same
> keywords ('global climate change') were assessed. The results of my
> analysis contradict Oreskes' findings and essentially falsify her study:
> Of all 1117 abstracts, only 13 (1%) explicitly endorse the 'consensus
> view'. However, 34 abstracts reject or question the view that human
> activities are the main driving force of 'the observed warming over the
> last 50 years'.
>
> Oreskes claims that 'none of these papers argued [that current climate
> change is natural]'. However, 44 papers emphasise that natural factors
> play a major if not the key role in recent climate change.
>
> The most significant discrepancy with Oreskes' results concern abstracts
> that are undecided whether human activities are the dominant driving force
> of recent warming. My analysis shows that a significant number of
> abstracts reject what Oreskes calls the 'consensus view'. In fact, there
> are almost three times as many abstracts that are unconvinced of the
> notion of anthropogenic climate change than those that explicitly endorse
> it."
>
> Two German environmental scientist, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch,
> conducted an extensive survey of 530 climate scientists from 27 different
> countries in 2003. (A similar survey was conducted in 1996.) On the
> critical assertion, "human activity is causing climate change" only 55.8%
> agreed, 30% disagreed, and the rest were uncertain. This is hardly
> unanimous agreement.
>
> In a recent analysis of peer-reviewed studies, Dennis Avery and Fred
> Singer listed more than 500 climate scientists whose studies confirmed
> that climate change is a natural phenomenon.
>
> There is no consensus. Even if there were it would have no value in
> science. Proof leads to consensus, not the other way around.
>
>>
>> Ooo, ooo! <waving hand> The scientific peer review doesn't have as
>> many close-up beaver shots, right?
>>
>> Misc "you know, if they want to get some publicity..."
>
> "Peer reviews" are when you decide where you want to go fishing.
Typical: quote Al Gore as an authority rather than the spokesman he is,
confuse peer review with publishing, conflate consensus with unanimous
agreement. And you clearly do not know why they refer to these things as
"theories" hint - it is not the definition you understand it to be. Like
the :"theory" of evolution or the "theory" of quantum physics or the
"theory" of gravity. Yes, gravity is a scientific theory. <sound of Tom's
head exploding> Eveb the famous "theory of relativity" while accepted is
still a theory. If you knew the first thing about science you would know
that challenges to theories are what it is all about. It is those very
challenges that lead to further discoveries and greater understanding. Any
respectable scientists expects his or her work to be scrutinized and they
never present it as a closed case. Those that do, such as the ones you
mention, are violating a fundamental rule of science. You trivialize a
number like 55.8 percent agreement like it was nothing but in the scientific
world it is nothing short of phenomenal.
So the more you try to prove some qualifications by cutting and pasting AEI,
CATO Institute, or some other extremely biased think tank (and well paid too
I might add) editorials the more you show that you don't know anything.
And a very quick search yields this regarding two of your sources:
Bray and von Storch, 2003
A survey was conducted in 2003 by Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch [44] [45]
Bray's submission to Science on December 22, 2004 was rejected, but the
survey's results were reported through non-scientific venues.[46][47] The
survey received 530 responses from 27 different countries. One of the
questions asked was "To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate
change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes?", with a value of 1
indicating strongly agree and a value of 7 indicating strongly disagree. The
results showed a mean of 3.62, with 50 responses (9.4%) indicating "strongly
agree" and 54 responses (9.7%) indicating "strongly disagree". The same
survey indicates a 72% to 20% endorsement of the IPCC reports as accurate,
and a 15% to 80% rejection of the thesis that "there is enough uncertainty
about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate
policy decisions."
The survey has been criticized on the grounds that it was performed on the
web with no means to verify that the respondents were climate scientists or
to prevent multiple submissions. The survey required entry of a username and
password, but this information was circulated to a climate skeptics mailing
list and elsewhere on the internet.[48][49]. Bray and von Storch have
recently defended their results[50] and accused climate change skeptics of
interpreting the results with bias.
So there you go Tom. - their survey was rejected because it could not meet
any scientific criteria nor could its results be verified. See that is call
verification and replication and unless somebody else can come to the same
conclusions you did then your work is of no value.
Let me read to you the conclusion again:
The same survey indicates a 72% to 20% endorsement of the IPCC reports as
accurate, and a 15% to 80% rejection of the thesis that "there is enough
uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for
immediate policy decisions."
See you left that little part out, you quoted part of the survey which
supported you and rejected the other conclusion.
Paul