Re: Smoke one for the Wilkins Ice Shelf
"Joe" <joe@nospam.hits-buffalo,com > wrote in message
news:slrnfvgucl.j4c.joe@barada.griffincs.local...
> On 2008-04-05, Alex W. <ingilt@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>>
>> "Joe" <joe@nospam.hits-buffalo,com > wrote in message
>> news:slrnfvdhhk.r2.joe@barada.griffincs.local...
>>> On 2008-04-04, Alex W. <ingilt@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>>
>>
>>>> Question: in terms of environmentally responsible behaviour,does it
>>>> really
>>>> MATTER whether the global climate is cooling or warming?
>>>
>>> Yes. If you are to fix a problem, it is impossible to do so without
>>> knowing what the actual problem is...
>>
>> If your behaviour is wrong in the first place, it does not matter whether
>> or
>> not it creates a problem. Do you teach your children that it's alright
>> to
>> leave a mess wherever they go and whatever they do? Of course not. So
>> why
>> should it be acceptable to do just that when it comes to adult and
>> societal
>> behaviour?
>
> That is separate from your original question. And it still matters.
> The earth is a producer of fossil fuels. What is there to say that
> the burning of those fuels is wrong? If everything has a purpose,
> that is the purpose.
Nothing wrong with burning fossil fuels. What bothers me is that we do so
inefficiently, wastefully and with very little thought about the garbage we
create this way. It's bad
thinking, bad manners, bad politics, bad economics and bad engineering.
It's a denial of the consequences of our behaviour: our wastrel ways support
dictators, cause strife and wars, create false expectations and assumptions,
and collectively put burdens on our society which we as individuals deny.
>
> It does not make any sense to pollute the water we drink or the air we
> breathe, or even to litter, but when it comes to climate change, we do
> need to know what is going on, and if we are doing something to help
> it along it matters a LOT to know what, exactly, that is.
Look at the debate. Then tell me whether there is any evidence, any level
of proof which would be accepted as incontrovertible. Our climate is pretty
much the most complex system we know of, and this gives massive scope for
dissent and disbelief. There could be orchids growing in Nebraska and New
York City could be 50 feet underwater, and there woould still be people
saying "ah, but this was the state the continent was in during geological
period X, so this, too, is normal and nothing to do with us".
>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Supplementary question: even if human activity is not wholly
>>>> responsible,
>>>> it
>>>> surely is a contributory factor to climate change. Is that not reason
>>>> enough to take action?
>>>
>>> No. Not if we can't give that effect any substantial quantification,
>>> or if we don't know what actual effect there is at all. Perhaps the
>>> actual net effect of human influence has been to cool the environment,
>>> while natural warming was occurring, thus counteracting the effect of
>>> nature a bit and giving ourselves more time. If we don't know what
>>> effect we are having, if any at all, it is irresponsible to make major
>>> changes that may have worse effects (unintended consequences and all)
>>> than what we are doing now...
>>
>> Yes, that is a valid concern.
>> The problem with that approach is the risk that by the time we can prove
>> and
>> quantify this potential harmful impact to everybody's satisfaction, it
>> may
>> be too late to avert catastrophic damage. Oh, humanity would survive
>> Global
>> Warming/Cooling, but civilisation might well die. The systems we have
>> built
>> to sustain our lives are hugely complex and really quite fragile. A
>> change
>> in average annual temperature by only a few degrees up or down would be
>> the
>> end of agriculture as we practise it, no to mention cause climatic
>> changes
>> which would make vast swathes of our temerate latitudes quite unsuitable
>> for
>> our advanced civilisation. So the question is: can we afford to wait for
>> positive 100% proof?
>>
>
> Do we have a real choice, given the alternative? You can do nothing
> and have a 50/50 shot of it being the right choice, or you can make a
> change and have a 50/50 shot at it being the right choice. Makes more
> sense to stick with the one you are already doing until such time as
> you can show that it is wrong.
But we're not standing still. We are piling up more pressure on the system
all the time, continually changing the equations.
>
> The average global temperature has not changed in 9 years. Perhaps we
> are doing OK...
>
>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Also consider this: in the end, who or what is responsible is really
>>>> immaterial. The industrialised nations have spent the past 100 years
>>>> or
>>>> so
>>>> building up a vast and intricately interconnected system of technology
>>>> and
>>>> trade which will be seriously disrupted by any change, whatever the
>>>> cause.
>>>> We should be doing everything we can to protect this our collective
>>>> investment in every manner we can think of -- and this would certainly
>>>> include cleaning up our act and minimising whatever impact we are
>>>> having
>>>> on
>>>> the climate.
>>>
>>> And what if the changes we make end up worsening the problem rather
>>> than improving it? It is entirely possible that making a change, just
>>> for the sake of change, is what brings down the whole house of
>>> cards...
>>
>> But we're not talking about making changes. We are talking about
>> reversing
>> changes and actions already made.
>
> No, that would be a change from what we are doing now. And,
> potentially an expensive one (both in cost and in net effects). You
> cannot reverse what has already been done. You cannot change history.
> You CAN make changes going into the future, but you take a serious
> risk of catastrophic results.
We can reverse processes, rates of increase/decrease.
If we are not sure about the effects, does it not make sense to stop adding
to the problem until we know what's going on?
>
> For instance, the current push for ethanol. In order to produce
> enough ethanol to just run automobiles, we run a serious risk of
> destroying our food supply. And people are flocking to the business
> model to take advantage of government subsidies. You hear a lot of
> good stories about South American countries that have completely made
> the move to sugar-based ethanol. You hear less about the rainforest
> destruction that has helped to make that possible. Which has a bigger
> effect on the ecosystem?
Heh. The German government just stopped the mandatory introduction of
biofuels because they discovered that a major proportion of cars can't take
the fuel ...
I agree, the current craze for biofuels is stupid and the unintended
consequences are less than ecologically beneficial. Does that invalidate
the underlying issue, though?