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OT: Still in denial about climate change?
OT: Still in denial about climate change?
Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
By Volker Mrasek
Der Spiegel, Germany
Friday 02 March 2007
Global climate change is happening faster than previously believed and its
impact is worse than expected, information from an as-yet unpublished draft of
the long-awaited second part of a United Nations report obtained by SPIEGEL
ONLINE reveals. No region of the planet will be spared and some will be hit
especially hard.
Is the world's weather already out of control? Is the pollution of the past
decades having an impact on the present? That's exactly what the United Nations'
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fears: Human influences over the last
30 years "have had a recognizable effect on many physical and biological
systems," write the authors of the as yet unreleased second part of the 2007
global climate change report.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is convinced global warming is already making the
world sweat. At least that's the gist of the "Summary for Policymakers" from the
group made up of hundreds of scientists.
The second part of the report is to be presented in April in Brussels after
final discussions with government representatives from around the globe. The
meta-study is certain to have a major political impact on the ongoing debate
about climate change.
Mounting Evidence: Climate Change is Happening Now
The main conclusion of the report is that climate change is already having a
profound effect on all the continents and on many of the Earth's ecosystems. The
draft presents a long list of evidence:
* Glacial lakes are increasing in both size and number, potentially leading
to deadly floods
* Permafrost in mountainous regions and at high latitudes is warming
increasing the danger of land slides.
* As the temperature of rivers and lakes rises, their thermal stratification
and water quality is changing.
* River currents, affected by melting glaciers and ice, are speeding up
during the spring.
* Springtime is starting earlier, causing plants to bloom earlier and
changing the migrations of birds.
* Many plants and animals are expanding their habitats into mountainous
regions and higher latitudes that are becoming milder.
The authors of the report have sifted through some 30,000 data sets from
more than 70 international studies documenting changes to water circulation, to
cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora and fauna over a period of at least
20 years.
According to the IPCC, "more than 85 percent" of the data show "changes in a
direction that would be expected as a reaction to warming." In other words:
Researchers found evidence of environmental changes due to the greenhouse effect
caused by mankind in nearly 9 out of 10 cases surveyed.
The researchers consider it "very unlikely" that the changes observed could
be naturally occurring phenomena. They argue that the patterns of regional
climate warming and environmental changes match up well with each other. And a
similar consistency exists between the scientists' observations and what climate
models have predicted would happen as temperatures rise.
Nature Under Threat
The UN experts go beyond the current situation. They also explore how
populated regions and ecosystems will develop in the future as the world becomes
warmer.
Many natural resources are likely to fall victim to climate change according
to the IPCC draft report:
# Some 20 to 30 percent of all species face a "high risk of extinction" should
average global temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius from their
1990 levels. That could happen by 2050, the report warns.
* Coral reefs are "likely to undergo strong declines."
* Salt marshes and mangrove forests could disappear as sea levels rise.
* Tropical rainforests will be replaced by savanna in those regions where
groundwater decreases.
* Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones in the Artic
shift.
The IPCC expects the following world regions to suffer the most due to
climate change:
* The Arctic due to the greatest relative warming
* Small island states in the Pacific as sea levels rise
* Africa south of the Sahel zone due to drought
* Densely populated river deltas in Asia amid flooding
This list alone makes abundantly clear that mankind will not escape these
changes unscathed.
Heat-Related Deaths, Floods, Drought, Storms
The UN climate panel expects "increasing deaths, injuries and illness from
heat waves, floods, storms, forest fires and droughts." The draft summary for
policymakers details "heat-related mortality" especially in Europe and Asia.
Several hundred million people in densely populated coastal regions -
particularly river deltas in Asia - are threatened by rising sea levels and the
increasing risk of flooding. More than one-sixth of the world's population lives
in areas affected by water sources from glaciers and snow pack that will "very
likely" disappear, according to the report.
The climate experts detail the potential consequences for most of the world
including Europe, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, polar
regions and small Pacific islands. For the most part, global warming will have
negative effects for both humans and the environment across much of the planet.
The positive aspects - such as better agricultural and forestry yields in
northern Europe - will be more than outweighed by the threats presented by
rising temperatures and the perils that accompany them.
The draft also makes clear just how strongly the authors stand behind their
forecasts. Most of their conclusions belong to category two, which means the
researchers back them with "strong certainty." Some are even designated "very
strong certainty," including the example that North America will be hit by
stronger forest fires and heat waves in large cities, as well as the assumption
that climate change poses the biggest risk to small island states.
The report also lists specific positive developments due to global warming -
but they are expected to be of an ephemeral nature.
The experts apparently do not have concerns about the planet's food
production capabilities. Conditions for agriculture are likely to improve in
higher latitudes, leading to greater global yields overall. However, numerous
developing countries are likely to be hit by greater periods of drought at the
same time - thus threatening their populations with hunger. The climate panel
expects yields in the north and deep south only to begin to sink once
temperatures rise by more than three degrees Celsius. Overall, they put "average
trust" in their predictions about food production.
Rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere will at first
help the plant world. Vegetation growth will be stronger and the planet will
become greener. The absorption of CO2 by plant life will to a certain extent
work against climate change, but not forever. "In the second half of the century
terrestrial ecosystems will become a source of carbon which will then accelerate
climate change," the IPCC report warns.
The ability of the world's oceans to absorb CO2 is also expected to be
depleted by the end of the 21st century. By then they could begin to release
greenhouse gases instead of absorbing them.
Rich Nations Also At Risk
Although the inhabitants of poorer, developing nations are likely to suffer
the most from climate change, the IPCC report makes clear that richer industrial
nations such as the United States are also at risk. North America, the report
cautions, is hardly prepared for the "growing risks and economic losses caused
by rising seas, storms and floods." The IPCC report also explicitly details the
threat posed by tropical storms. Climate change is expected to increase the
number of strong hurricanes leading to the concern that insurance companies
might refuse to cover damages in regions threatened by such storms like New
Orleans and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
Just as they did in the first part of the IPCC report released in February,
the climate experts warn that air pollution and greenhouse gases are likely to
have long-lasting effects since the planet's climate reacts slowly to changes.
It's already a "fait accompli" that average temperatures near ground level will
rise a further 0.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the report. Humanity
will have no choice but to adapt to the global changes.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE at the end of February,
the climate panel will demand radical changes and massive investment against
global warming in the third part of the IPCC report expected to be released in
May in Bangkok. Some $16 billion (€12.1 billion) will be required by 2030 and
humanity only has until 2020 to turn back the trend.
Whether the summary for policymakers will be released in its current form is
unclear. Delegates from several countries wrestled with the wording of the first
part of the report up until the last minute before its publication. Because, of
course, for both scientists and politicians it can make a big difference whether
the consequences of climate change are "likely," "very likely," or "practically
certain.
Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
By Volker Mrasek
Der Spiegel, Germany
Friday 02 March 2007
Global climate change is happening faster than previously believed and its
impact is worse than expected, information from an as-yet unpublished draft of
the long-awaited second part of a United Nations report obtained by SPIEGEL
ONLINE reveals. No region of the planet will be spared and some will be hit
especially hard.
Is the world's weather already out of control? Is the pollution of the past
decades having an impact on the present? That's exactly what the United Nations'
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fears: Human influences over the last
30 years "have had a recognizable effect on many physical and biological
systems," write the authors of the as yet unreleased second part of the 2007
global climate change report.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is convinced global warming is already making the
world sweat. At least that's the gist of the "Summary for Policymakers" from the
group made up of hundreds of scientists.
The second part of the report is to be presented in April in Brussels after
final discussions with government representatives from around the globe. The
meta-study is certain to have a major political impact on the ongoing debate
about climate change.
Mounting Evidence: Climate Change is Happening Now
The main conclusion of the report is that climate change is already having a
profound effect on all the continents and on many of the Earth's ecosystems. The
draft presents a long list of evidence:
* Glacial lakes are increasing in both size and number, potentially leading
to deadly floods
* Permafrost in mountainous regions and at high latitudes is warming
increasing the danger of land slides.
* As the temperature of rivers and lakes rises, their thermal stratification
and water quality is changing.
* River currents, affected by melting glaciers and ice, are speeding up
during the spring.
* Springtime is starting earlier, causing plants to bloom earlier and
changing the migrations of birds.
* Many plants and animals are expanding their habitats into mountainous
regions and higher latitudes that are becoming milder.
The authors of the report have sifted through some 30,000 data sets from
more than 70 international studies documenting changes to water circulation, to
cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora and fauna over a period of at least
20 years.
According to the IPCC, "more than 85 percent" of the data show "changes in a
direction that would be expected as a reaction to warming." In other words:
Researchers found evidence of environmental changes due to the greenhouse effect
caused by mankind in nearly 9 out of 10 cases surveyed.
The researchers consider it "very unlikely" that the changes observed could
be naturally occurring phenomena. They argue that the patterns of regional
climate warming and environmental changes match up well with each other. And a
similar consistency exists between the scientists' observations and what climate
models have predicted would happen as temperatures rise.
Nature Under Threat
The UN experts go beyond the current situation. They also explore how
populated regions and ecosystems will develop in the future as the world becomes
warmer.
Many natural resources are likely to fall victim to climate change according
to the IPCC draft report:
# Some 20 to 30 percent of all species face a "high risk of extinction" should
average global temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius from their
1990 levels. That could happen by 2050, the report warns.
* Coral reefs are "likely to undergo strong declines."
* Salt marshes and mangrove forests could disappear as sea levels rise.
* Tropical rainforests will be replaced by savanna in those regions where
groundwater decreases.
* Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones in the Artic
shift.
The IPCC expects the following world regions to suffer the most due to
climate change:
* The Arctic due to the greatest relative warming
* Small island states in the Pacific as sea levels rise
* Africa south of the Sahel zone due to drought
* Densely populated river deltas in Asia amid flooding
This list alone makes abundantly clear that mankind will not escape these
changes unscathed.
Heat-Related Deaths, Floods, Drought, Storms
The UN climate panel expects "increasing deaths, injuries and illness from
heat waves, floods, storms, forest fires and droughts." The draft summary for
policymakers details "heat-related mortality" especially in Europe and Asia.
Several hundred million people in densely populated coastal regions -
particularly river deltas in Asia - are threatened by rising sea levels and the
increasing risk of flooding. More than one-sixth of the world's population lives
in areas affected by water sources from glaciers and snow pack that will "very
likely" disappear, according to the report.
The climate experts detail the potential consequences for most of the world
including Europe, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Australia, New Zealand, polar
regions and small Pacific islands. For the most part, global warming will have
negative effects for both humans and the environment across much of the planet.
The positive aspects - such as better agricultural and forestry yields in
northern Europe - will be more than outweighed by the threats presented by
rising temperatures and the perils that accompany them.
The draft also makes clear just how strongly the authors stand behind their
forecasts. Most of their conclusions belong to category two, which means the
researchers back them with "strong certainty." Some are even designated "very
strong certainty," including the example that North America will be hit by
stronger forest fires and heat waves in large cities, as well as the assumption
that climate change poses the biggest risk to small island states.
The report also lists specific positive developments due to global warming -
but they are expected to be of an ephemeral nature.
The experts apparently do not have concerns about the planet's food
production capabilities. Conditions for agriculture are likely to improve in
higher latitudes, leading to greater global yields overall. However, numerous
developing countries are likely to be hit by greater periods of drought at the
same time - thus threatening their populations with hunger. The climate panel
expects yields in the north and deep south only to begin to sink once
temperatures rise by more than three degrees Celsius. Overall, they put "average
trust" in their predictions about food production.
Rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere will at first
help the plant world. Vegetation growth will be stronger and the planet will
become greener. The absorption of CO2 by plant life will to a certain extent
work against climate change, but not forever. "In the second half of the century
terrestrial ecosystems will become a source of carbon which will then accelerate
climate change," the IPCC report warns.
The ability of the world's oceans to absorb CO2 is also expected to be
depleted by the end of the 21st century. By then they could begin to release
greenhouse gases instead of absorbing them.
Rich Nations Also At Risk
Although the inhabitants of poorer, developing nations are likely to suffer
the most from climate change, the IPCC report makes clear that richer industrial
nations such as the United States are also at risk. North America, the report
cautions, is hardly prepared for the "growing risks and economic losses caused
by rising seas, storms and floods." The IPCC report also explicitly details the
threat posed by tropical storms. Climate change is expected to increase the
number of strong hurricanes leading to the concern that insurance companies
might refuse to cover damages in regions threatened by such storms like New
Orleans and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
Just as they did in the first part of the IPCC report released in February,
the climate experts warn that air pollution and greenhouse gases are likely to
have long-lasting effects since the planet's climate reacts slowly to changes.
It's already a "fait accompli" that average temperatures near ground level will
rise a further 0.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the report. Humanity
will have no choice but to adapt to the global changes.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE at the end of February,
the climate panel will demand radical changes and massive investment against
global warming in the third part of the IPCC report expected to be released in
May in Bangkok. Some $16 billion (€12.1 billion) will be required by 2030 and
humanity only has until 2020 to turn back the trend.
Whether the summary for policymakers will be released in its current form is
unclear. Delegates from several countries wrestled with the wording of the first
part of the report up until the last minute before its publication. Because, of
course, for both scientists and politicians it can make a big difference whether
the consequences of climate change are "likely," "very likely," or "practically
certain.
Re: OT: Still in denial about climate change?
Back in the mid 70's these same types were saying we were heading for
another Ice Age.. What happened there?
Jeff
Back in the mid 70's these same types were saying we were heading for
another Ice Age.. What happened there?
Jeff
Re: OT: Still in denial about climate change?
In article <Q86dnWvpMc_qUXTYnZ2dnUVZ_uDinZ2d@comcast . com >,
Smak! <smakutus1@comcast . net > wrote:
>Back in the mid 70's these same types were saying we were heading for
>another Ice Age.. What happened there?
Short attention span....
In article <Q86dnWvpMc_qUXTYnZ2dnUVZ_uDinZ2d@comcast . com >,
Smak! <smakutus1@comcast . net > wrote:
>Back in the mid 70's these same types were saying we were heading for
>another Ice Age.. What happened there?
Short attention span....
Re: OT: Still in denial about climate change?
On Sat, 03 Mar 2007 11:00:40 -0800, "its@yourworld . net "
<its@yourworld . net > wrote:
>Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
> By Volker Mrasek
> Der Spiegel, Germany
>
Der Spiegel?
Remember the Hitler diaries?
Bwhahahahahahahahaha
On Sat, 03 Mar 2007 11:00:40 -0800, "its@yourworld . net "
<its@yourworld . net > wrote:
>Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
> By Volker Mrasek
> Der Spiegel, Germany
>
Der Spiegel?
Remember the Hitler diaries?
Bwhahahahahahahahaha
Re: Still in denial about climate change?
its@yourworld . net wrote:
> Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
> By Volker Mrasek
> Der Spiegel, Germany
>
> Friday 02 March 2007
>
> Global climate change is happening faster than previously believed
> and its impact is worse than expected, information from an as-yet
> unpublished draft of the long-awaited second part of a United Nations
> report obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE reveals. No region of the planet
> will be spared and some will be hit especially hard.
>
> Is the world's weather already out of control? Is the pollution of
> the past decades having an impact on the present? That's exactly what
> the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fears:
> Human influences over the last 30 years "have had a recognizable
> effect on many physical and biological systems," write the authors of
> the as yet unreleased second part of the 2007 global climate change
> report.
>
> According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is convinced global
> warming is already making the world sweat. At least that's the gist
> of the "Summary for Policymakers" from the group made up of hundreds
> of scientists.
>
> The second part of the report is to be presented in April in
> Brussels after final discussions with government representatives from
> around the globe. The meta-study is certain to have a major political
> impact on the ongoing debate about climate change.
>
> Mounting Evidence: Climate Change is Happening Now
>
> The main conclusion of the report is that climate change is
> already having a profound effect on all the continents and on many of
> the Earth's ecosystems. The draft presents a long list of evidence:
>
> * Glacial lakes are increasing in both size and number,
> potentially leading to deadly floods
>
> * Permafrost in mountainous regions and at high latitudes is
> warming increasing the danger of land slides.
>
> * As the temperature of rivers and lakes rises, their thermal
> stratification and water quality is changing.
>
> * River currents, affected by melting glaciers and ice, are
> speeding up during the spring.
>
> * Springtime is starting earlier, causing plants to bloom earlier
> and changing the migrations of birds.
>
> * Many plants and animals are expanding their habitats into
> mountainous regions and higher latitudes that are becoming milder.
>
> The authors of the report have sifted through some 30,000 data
> sets from more than 70 international studies documenting changes to
> water circulation, to cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora
> and fauna over a period of at least 20 years.
>
> According to the IPCC, "more than 85 percent" of the data show
> "changes in a direction that would be expected as a reaction to
> warming." In other words: Researchers found evidence of environmental
> changes due to the greenhouse effect caused by mankind in nearly 9
> out of 10 cases surveyed.
>
> The researchers consider it "very unlikely" that the changes
> observed could be naturally occurring phenomena. They argue that the
> patterns of regional climate warming and environmental changes match
> up well with each other. And a similar consistency exists between the
> scientists' observations and what climate models have predicted would
> happen as temperatures rise.
>
> Nature Under Threat
>
> The UN experts go beyond the current situation. They also explore
> how populated regions and ecosystems will develop in the future as
> the world becomes warmer.
>
> Many natural resources are likely to fall victim to climate change
> according to the IPCC draft report:
> # Some 20 to 30 percent of all species face a "high risk of
> extinction" should average global temperatures rise another 1.5 to
> 2.5 degrees Celsius from their 1990 levels. That could happen by
> 2050, the report warns.
>
> * Coral reefs are "likely to undergo strong declines."
>
> * Salt marshes and mangrove forests could disappear as sea levels
> rise.
>
> * Tropical rainforests will be replaced by savanna in those
> regions where groundwater decreases.
>
> * Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones in
> the Artic shift.
>
> The IPCC expects the following world regions to suffer the most
> due to climate change:
>
> * The Arctic due to the greatest relative warming
> * Small island states in the Pacific as sea levels rise
>
> * Africa south of the Sahel zone due to drought
>
> * Densely populated river deltas in Asia amid flooding
>
> This list alone makes abundantly clear that mankind will not
> escape these changes unscathed.
>
> Heat-Related Deaths, Floods, Drought, Storms
>
> The UN climate panel expects "increasing deaths, injuries and
> illness from heat waves, floods, storms, forest fires and droughts."
> The draft summary for policymakers details "heat-related mortality"
> especially in Europe and Asia.
>
> Several hundred million people in densely populated coastal
> regions - particularly river deltas in Asia - are threatened by
> rising sea levels and the increasing risk of flooding. More than
> one-sixth of the world's population lives in areas affected by water
> sources from glaciers and snow pack that will "very likely"
> disappear, according to the report.
>
> The climate experts detail the potential consequences for most of
> the world including Europe, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Australia,
> New Zealand, polar regions and small Pacific islands. For the most
> part, global warming will have negative effects for both humans and
> the environment across much of the planet. The positive aspects -
> such as better agricultural and forestry yields in northern Europe -
> will be more than outweighed by the threats presented by rising
> temperatures and the perils that accompany them.
>
> The draft also makes clear just how strongly the authors stand
> behind their forecasts. Most of their conclusions belong to category
> two, which means the researchers back them with "strong certainty."
> Some are even designated "very strong certainty," including the
> example that North America will be hit by stronger forest fires and
> heat waves in large cities, as well as the assumption that climate
> change poses the biggest risk to small island states.
>
> The report also lists specific positive developments due to global
> warming - but they are expected to be of an ephemeral nature.
>
> The experts apparently do not have concerns about the planet's food
> production capabilities. Conditions for agriculture are likely to
> improve in higher latitudes, leading to greater global yields
> overall. However, numerous developing countries are likely to be hit
> by greater periods of drought at the same time - thus threatening
> their populations with hunger. The climate panel expects yields in
> the north and deep south only to begin to sink once temperatures rise
> by more than three degrees Celsius. Overall, they put "average trust"
> in their predictions about food production.
>
> Rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere
> will at first help the plant world. Vegetation growth will be
> stronger and the planet will become greener. The absorption of CO2 by
> plant life will to a certain extent work against climate change, but
> not forever. "In the second half of the century terrestrial
> ecosystems will become a source of carbon which will then accelerate
> climate change," the IPCC report warns.
>
> The ability of the world's oceans to absorb CO2 is also expected
> to be depleted by the end of the 21st century. By then they could
> begin to release greenhouse gases instead of absorbing them.
>
> Rich Nations Also At Risk
>
> Although the inhabitants of poorer, developing nations are likely
> to suffer the most from climate change, the IPCC report makes clear
> that richer industrial nations such as the United States are also at
> risk. North America, the report cautions, is hardly prepared for the
> "growing risks and economic losses caused by rising seas, storms and
> floods." The IPCC report also explicitly details the threat posed by
> tropical storms. Climate change is expected to increase the number of
> strong hurricanes leading to the concern that insurance companies
> might refuse to cover damages in regions threatened by such storms
> like New Orleans and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
>
> Just as they did in the first part of the IPCC report released in
> February, the climate experts warn that air pollution and greenhouse
> gases are likely to have long-lasting effects since the planet's
> climate reacts slowly to changes. It's already a "fait accompli" that
> average temperatures near ground level will rise a further 0.6
> degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the report. Humanity will have
> no choice but to adapt to the global changes.
>
> According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE at the end of
> February, the climate panel will demand radical changes and massive
> investment against global warming in the third part of the IPCC
> report expected to be released in May in Bangkok. Some $16 billion
> (?12.1 billion) will be required by 2030 and humanity only has until
> 2020 to turn back the trend.
>
> Whether the summary for policymakers will be released in its
> current form is unclear. Delegates from several countries wrestled
> with the wording of the first part of the report up until the last
> minute before its publication. Because, of course, for both
> scientists and politicians it can make a big difference whether the
> consequences of climate change are "likely," "very likely," or
> "practically certain.
I am so sorry that I failed to keep the reference and that I have to respond
in generalities, but there is a scientist from a large American university
who wrote an article in either a recent US News and World Report or one that
appeared in the press in response to the "sky is falling" global warming,
the world-is-coming-to-an-end doomsdayer notion.
In it, as I interpreted it, he was saying that there is no real evidence
that the present day global warming trend is a result of the relatively
small amount of CO2 that we introduce into the atmosphere (relatively being
the operant word here), that global warming trends are cyclical by nature
and have waxed and waned over the eons, that a small 50-100 year sampling of
our weather/climate relative to its 4.5 billion year history may lead us
well out of context, and that precipitation is the key factor in nature's
self-control of global warming and cooling trends, not as much the
introduction of CO2. ie. Precipitation controls how much CO2 remains in the
atmosphere and thus its long-term effect on warming.
He made a point of referring to Al Gore's movie and stating that Mr. Gore
overlooked many pertinent scientific facts in his production.
Everything I wrote above is paraphrased based on my understanding of the
article and, as such, should be taken with as much credibility as you wish
to give it, but I believe he made a lot of scientific and logical sense and
I believe I presented his concepts fairly accurately.
None of which is to be taken to say that there is not currently a state of
global warming, nor that any of the indicators mentioned in the report,
above, are incorrect, just that their causative factors are in question.
Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me out.
its@yourworld . net wrote:
> Climate Change Impact More Extensive Than Thought
> By Volker Mrasek
> Der Spiegel, Germany
>
> Friday 02 March 2007
>
> Global climate change is happening faster than previously believed
> and its impact is worse than expected, information from an as-yet
> unpublished draft of the long-awaited second part of a United Nations
> report obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE reveals. No region of the planet
> will be spared and some will be hit especially hard.
>
> Is the world's weather already out of control? Is the pollution of
> the past decades having an impact on the present? That's exactly what
> the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fears:
> Human influences over the last 30 years "have had a recognizable
> effect on many physical and biological systems," write the authors of
> the as yet unreleased second part of the 2007 global climate change
> report.
>
> According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the
> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is convinced global
> warming is already making the world sweat. At least that's the gist
> of the "Summary for Policymakers" from the group made up of hundreds
> of scientists.
>
> The second part of the report is to be presented in April in
> Brussels after final discussions with government representatives from
> around the globe. The meta-study is certain to have a major political
> impact on the ongoing debate about climate change.
>
> Mounting Evidence: Climate Change is Happening Now
>
> The main conclusion of the report is that climate change is
> already having a profound effect on all the continents and on many of
> the Earth's ecosystems. The draft presents a long list of evidence:
>
> * Glacial lakes are increasing in both size and number,
> potentially leading to deadly floods
>
> * Permafrost in mountainous regions and at high latitudes is
> warming increasing the danger of land slides.
>
> * As the temperature of rivers and lakes rises, their thermal
> stratification and water quality is changing.
>
> * River currents, affected by melting glaciers and ice, are
> speeding up during the spring.
>
> * Springtime is starting earlier, causing plants to bloom earlier
> and changing the migrations of birds.
>
> * Many plants and animals are expanding their habitats into
> mountainous regions and higher latitudes that are becoming milder.
>
> The authors of the report have sifted through some 30,000 data
> sets from more than 70 international studies documenting changes to
> water circulation, to cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora
> and fauna over a period of at least 20 years.
>
> According to the IPCC, "more than 85 percent" of the data show
> "changes in a direction that would be expected as a reaction to
> warming." In other words: Researchers found evidence of environmental
> changes due to the greenhouse effect caused by mankind in nearly 9
> out of 10 cases surveyed.
>
> The researchers consider it "very unlikely" that the changes
> observed could be naturally occurring phenomena. They argue that the
> patterns of regional climate warming and environmental changes match
> up well with each other. And a similar consistency exists between the
> scientists' observations and what climate models have predicted would
> happen as temperatures rise.
>
> Nature Under Threat
>
> The UN experts go beyond the current situation. They also explore
> how populated regions and ecosystems will develop in the future as
> the world becomes warmer.
>
> Many natural resources are likely to fall victim to climate change
> according to the IPCC draft report:
> # Some 20 to 30 percent of all species face a "high risk of
> extinction" should average global temperatures rise another 1.5 to
> 2.5 degrees Celsius from their 1990 levels. That could happen by
> 2050, the report warns.
>
> * Coral reefs are "likely to undergo strong declines."
>
> * Salt marshes and mangrove forests could disappear as sea levels
> rise.
>
> * Tropical rainforests will be replaced by savanna in those
> regions where groundwater decreases.
>
> * Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones in
> the Artic shift.
>
> The IPCC expects the following world regions to suffer the most
> due to climate change:
>
> * The Arctic due to the greatest relative warming
> * Small island states in the Pacific as sea levels rise
>
> * Africa south of the Sahel zone due to drought
>
> * Densely populated river deltas in Asia amid flooding
>
> This list alone makes abundantly clear that mankind will not
> escape these changes unscathed.
>
> Heat-Related Deaths, Floods, Drought, Storms
>
> The UN climate panel expects "increasing deaths, injuries and
> illness from heat waves, floods, storms, forest fires and droughts."
> The draft summary for policymakers details "heat-related mortality"
> especially in Europe and Asia.
>
> Several hundred million people in densely populated coastal
> regions - particularly river deltas in Asia - are threatened by
> rising sea levels and the increasing risk of flooding. More than
> one-sixth of the world's population lives in areas affected by water
> sources from glaciers and snow pack that will "very likely"
> disappear, according to the report.
>
> The climate experts detail the potential consequences for most of
> the world including Europe, Africa, Asia, the Americas, Australia,
> New Zealand, polar regions and small Pacific islands. For the most
> part, global warming will have negative effects for both humans and
> the environment across much of the planet. The positive aspects -
> such as better agricultural and forestry yields in northern Europe -
> will be more than outweighed by the threats presented by rising
> temperatures and the perils that accompany them.
>
> The draft also makes clear just how strongly the authors stand
> behind their forecasts. Most of their conclusions belong to category
> two, which means the researchers back them with "strong certainty."
> Some are even designated "very strong certainty," including the
> example that North America will be hit by stronger forest fires and
> heat waves in large cities, as well as the assumption that climate
> change poses the biggest risk to small island states.
>
> The report also lists specific positive developments due to global
> warming - but they are expected to be of an ephemeral nature.
>
> The experts apparently do not have concerns about the planet's food
> production capabilities. Conditions for agriculture are likely to
> improve in higher latitudes, leading to greater global yields
> overall. However, numerous developing countries are likely to be hit
> by greater periods of drought at the same time - thus threatening
> their populations with hunger. The climate panel expects yields in
> the north and deep south only to begin to sink once temperatures rise
> by more than three degrees Celsius. Overall, they put "average trust"
> in their predictions about food production.
>
> Rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere
> will at first help the plant world. Vegetation growth will be
> stronger and the planet will become greener. The absorption of CO2 by
> plant life will to a certain extent work against climate change, but
> not forever. "In the second half of the century terrestrial
> ecosystems will become a source of carbon which will then accelerate
> climate change," the IPCC report warns.
>
> The ability of the world's oceans to absorb CO2 is also expected
> to be depleted by the end of the 21st century. By then they could
> begin to release greenhouse gases instead of absorbing them.
>
> Rich Nations Also At Risk
>
> Although the inhabitants of poorer, developing nations are likely
> to suffer the most from climate change, the IPCC report makes clear
> that richer industrial nations such as the United States are also at
> risk. North America, the report cautions, is hardly prepared for the
> "growing risks and economic losses caused by rising seas, storms and
> floods." The IPCC report also explicitly details the threat posed by
> tropical storms. Climate change is expected to increase the number of
> strong hurricanes leading to the concern that insurance companies
> might refuse to cover damages in regions threatened by such storms
> like New Orleans and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
>
> Just as they did in the first part of the IPCC report released in
> February, the climate experts warn that air pollution and greenhouse
> gases are likely to have long-lasting effects since the planet's
> climate reacts slowly to changes. It's already a "fait accompli" that
> average temperatures near ground level will rise a further 0.6
> degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the report. Humanity will have
> no choice but to adapt to the global changes.
>
> According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE at the end of
> February, the climate panel will demand radical changes and massive
> investment against global warming in the third part of the IPCC
> report expected to be released in May in Bangkok. Some $16 billion
> (?12.1 billion) will be required by 2030 and humanity only has until
> 2020 to turn back the trend.
>
> Whether the summary for policymakers will be released in its
> current form is unclear. Delegates from several countries wrestled
> with the wording of the first part of the report up until the last
> minute before its publication. Because, of course, for both
> scientists and politicians it can make a big difference whether the
> consequences of climate change are "likely," "very likely," or
> "practically certain.
I am so sorry that I failed to keep the reference and that I have to respond
in generalities, but there is a scientist from a large American university
who wrote an article in either a recent US News and World Report or one that
appeared in the press in response to the "sky is falling" global warming,
the world-is-coming-to-an-end doomsdayer notion.
In it, as I interpreted it, he was saying that there is no real evidence
that the present day global warming trend is a result of the relatively
small amount of CO2 that we introduce into the atmosphere (relatively being
the operant word here), that global warming trends are cyclical by nature
and have waxed and waned over the eons, that a small 50-100 year sampling of
our weather/climate relative to its 4.5 billion year history may lead us
well out of context, and that precipitation is the key factor in nature's
self-control of global warming and cooling trends, not as much the
introduction of CO2. ie. Precipitation controls how much CO2 remains in the
atmosphere and thus its long-term effect on warming.
He made a point of referring to Al Gore's movie and stating that Mr. Gore
overlooked many pertinent scientific facts in his production.
Everything I wrote above is paraphrased based on my understanding of the
article and, as such, should be taken with as much credibility as you wish
to give it, but I believe he made a lot of scientific and logical sense and
I believe I presented his concepts fairly accurately.
None of which is to be taken to say that there is not currently a state of
global warming, nor that any of the indicators mentioned in the report,
above, are incorrect, just that their causative factors are in question.
Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me out.
Re: Still in denial about climate change?
<snip>>
> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
> out.
>
Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it regardless
of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
many people that desperately want him to be right.
I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has little
to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more damage
to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
<snip>>
> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
> out.
>
Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it regardless
of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
many people that desperately want him to be right.
I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has little
to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more damage
to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
Re: Still in denial about climate change?
you need to see The Great Global Warming Swindle From BBC it has the
top250 climate scientists in the world saying its just a cycle...even
the former leader of Greenpeace isn't buying in to gore's bullshit.
On Wed, 14 Mar 2007 21:46:10 -0700, "Ook" <Ook Don't send me any
freakin' spam at zootal dot com delete the Don't send me any freakin'
spam> wrote:
>
><snip>>
>
>> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
>> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
>> out.
>>
>
>Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it regardless
>of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
>many people that desperately want him to be right.
>
>I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
>are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
>global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has little
>to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more damage
>to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
>And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
>
you need to see The Great Global Warming Swindle From BBC it has the
top250 climate scientists in the world saying its just a cycle...even
the former leader of Greenpeace isn't buying in to gore's bullshit.
On Wed, 14 Mar 2007 21:46:10 -0700, "Ook" <Ook Don't send me any
freakin' spam at zootal dot com delete the Don't send me any freakin'
spam> wrote:
>
><snip>>
>
>> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
>> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
>> out.
>>
>
>Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it regardless
>of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
>many people that desperately want him to be right.
>
>I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
>are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
>global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has little
>to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more damage
>to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
>And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
>
Re: Still in denial about climate change?
.06 degres in the past 1000 years.. Global warming is nothing more then Al
Gore's way to make a few $$$
"hupur" <dale@pollardcanada . com > wrote in message
news:on9lv21o3lbpatk0n4v1f6rfrom9dlnsha@4ax . com ...
>
> you need to see The Great Global Warming Swindle From BBC it has the
> top250 climate scientists in the world saying its just a cycle...even
> the former leader of Greenpeace isn't buying in to gore's bullshit.
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, 14 Mar 2007 21:46:10 -0700, "Ook" <Ook Don't send me any
> freakin' spam at zootal dot com delete the Don't send me any freakin'
> spam> wrote:
>
> >
> ><snip>>
> >
> >> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
> >> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
> >> out.
> >>
> >
> >Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it
regardless
> >of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
> >many people that desperately want him to be right.
> >
> >I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
> >are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
> >global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has
little
> >to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more
damage
> >to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
> >And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
> >
>
.06 degres in the past 1000 years.. Global warming is nothing more then Al
Gore's way to make a few $$$
"hupur" <dale@pollardcanada . com > wrote in message
news:on9lv21o3lbpatk0n4v1f6rfrom9dlnsha@4ax . com ...
>
> you need to see The Great Global Warming Swindle From BBC it has the
> top250 climate scientists in the world saying its just a cycle...even
> the former leader of Greenpeace isn't buying in to gore's bullshit.
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, 14 Mar 2007 21:46:10 -0700, "Ook" <Ook Don't send me any
> freakin' spam at zootal dot com delete the Don't send me any freakin'
> spam> wrote:
>
> >
> ><snip>>
> >
> >> Again, I apologize for not having kept the reference for times such as
> >> these. If anyone knows of the article I'm referring to, please help me
> >> out.
> >>
> >
> >Those that want to believe in global warming will believe in it
regardless
> >of the facts. That is why Al Gore is so popular - there are unfortunately
> >many people that desperately want him to be right.
> >
> >I'm not sure I'm familiar with the article you are thinking of, but there
> >are others similar to it. As I understand it, most scientists agree that
> >global warming is happening. And most scientists agree that man has
little
> >to do with the current global warming trend. Mt. St. Helens did more
damage
> >to the environment in 30 seconds then man has done in the last 100 years.
> >And the ozone layer miraculously healed it self. Puuulleeaassee....
> >
>
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