According to Mark Hughes in this week's Autosport magazine it's
about 0.15s per lap.
In his regular MPH column he tries to gauge the real difference
in performance between the top three teams - using the lap times
from Barcelona.
It's something that you probably need to read in full to understand,
but here's a brief summary.
In Q2:
1 Ferrari
2 BMW +0.013
3 McLaren +0.241
In Q3 (correcting for weight of fuel):
1 Ferrari
2 BMW +0.165
3 McLaren +1.196
Why did Ferrari improve in Q3? Kubica's Q2 lap was 'a stunner', better
than his Q3 effort, and Kimi was improving his car's setup until his
final lap to set pole.
Hughes suggests that the true difference between Ferrari & BMW lies between
the 0.013 & 0.165s figures. He also explains that he's only considering
Kimi, Robert & Lewis in this exercise.
Why did McLaren improve between Q2 & Q3? Probably caused by how the track
was rubbering in. The McLaren was not finding as much time on the softer
tyres as the other two. They were, however, quicker on the harder tyres.
The more the track rubbers in the more it favours the softer tyres and
McLaren were the slowest of the three on the softs. McLaren were also
quicker in the first two sectors on the softs, but slowed in the final
sector - it works the tyres harder than Ferrari or BMW. The combination
of the two different compounds, the nature of the circuit and the track
temperature were exactly wrong for McLaren's tyre usage. That situation
won't apply elsewhere.
Ferrari also has a tyre weakness, they are unable to get the fronts up
to temperature quick enough, which affects qualifying pace.
Looking at race lap times Hughes estimates that Kimi was between 0.34 and
0.37s faster than Lewis - and Lewis was effectively on the limit, but
Kimi didn't need to be. The Ferrari was faster with something in reserve
than the McLaren on the limit. Some of that was due to different fuel
strategy which reduces the deficit to about 0.263s.
Kubica's BMW was stuck behind the McLaren and so couldn't show it's true
pace, but Robert reckoned he was about as fast as Lewis.
In summary Hughes estimates that the Ferrari had an advantage of about
0.3s per lap over both McLaren & BMW, which would be about a 20s advantage
over 66 laps.
Finally he notes that Kimi & Robert were using new engines while Lewis'
was in it's second race. With the aforementioned 0.15s per lap gain/loss
for a new engine the 0.3s advantage would be halved to 0.15s between
Ferrari & McLaren, with BMW a further 0.15s behind McLaren.
Coming to Turkey Lewis has a new engine while Kimi & Robert have old ones,
so the 20s margin (over the race distance) could be reversed. And that
doesn't account for the possibly better tyres for McLaren. It's also
unknown how much engine life Ferrari saved by turning down both engines
from the early part of the Barcelona race.
From this morning's session it seems that track temperatures are quite
low, which might affect how different teams manage to get heat into
their tyres.
--
Brian
--
Brian W Lawrence
Wantage,
Oxfordshire, UK
Brian_W_Lawrence@msn.com