Re: 2008 PreviewOn Feb 9, 2:20 pm, build <bui...@gmail,com > wrote:
> On Feb 9, 10:55 am, Duncan Snowden <d...@ukonline.co.uk> wrote:
>
>
>
> > build wrote:
> > > Looking at software I have access to, these would be the order in
> > > Melbourne as of the last test. The variables are exponential so take
> > > with a grain of salt and common sense.
> > > Ferrari
> > > McLaren
> > > Renault
> > > Williams
> > > BMW
> > > Redbull
> > > STR
> > > Force India
> > > Honda
> > > Toyota
> > > Super Aguri
>
> > > Ferrari had a clear margin, McLaren did not, so mix the 2nd to 6th as
> > > you will. I'm looking forward to a good season :-)
>
> > Looks about right. Although we don't really know anything about Super
> > Aguri yet, it's hard to believe they'll do much with last year's Honda.
> > (There's a rumour going around that it won't be last year's, mind you.)
> > If they can work the same sort of miracles they did with that dodgy old
> > Arrows a couple of years ago though, who knows? ;)
>
> > And my prediction of the "works" Honda team making a stronger comeback
> > than Renault looks like wishful thinking already. Pity. Mind you,
> > Williams and Renault seem to be very close indeed, so it could be a fun
> > season.
>
> > --
> > Duncan Snowden.
>
> G'day Duncan,
> Yes the last 5 are very difficult to gauge at this stage, I'm sure the
> order there will change.
>
> The 5 behind Ferrari are all *very* close the only team with a gap is
> McLaren but the smallest hiccup will see one or more of those behind
> past them. It's much harder to race against 5 competitors than 1. Also
> McLaren will by nature also want to aim for Ferrari they don't want
> the distraction from those behind, if they are beaten by one of 4 in
> Melb I can see them floundering (perhaps).
>
> A few thoughts ... BMW are bluffing they are known to be using methods
> of disguising performance so they could well be ahead of anyones best
> guess. The others are bluffing too but less obviously so (as far as we
> know). Honda will move to the top of that last group, I'd bet my
> britches on it. Red Bull's performance to date is below expectations
> so they could surprise.
>
> So anything could happen and probably will but trying to predict
> performance with distorted data is good fun.
>
> The drivers are another equation. For Instance if Massa cannot beat or
> match Kimi in the first three races I reckon he (Kimi) will be
> unbeatable. Likewise with Heikki, he'll need to make a mark or he'll
> slide into a number two position, same at BMW too for that matter.
> Nakajima may be worth watching.
>
> Now a question. Last year did Ferrari looked a bit slow pre-season?
> and in '05-'06 did Renault look a bit slow pre-season?
>
> beers,
> build
15/02/2008
Well with only two tests left before Melbourne, performance seems to
be pretty much as expected with Ferrari set to dominate and McLaren to
lead the "B" teams or perhaps fill the gap between them and Ferrari.
Williams and Red Bull look the strongest of the B's with Renault and
BMW needing improvement. However with the teams undoubtedly masking
their performance in a number of ways it is difficult to be certain.
Somehow when one watches the Renault "Team" at work it's difficult to
imagine them not being very competitive so I reckon there's more there
than meets the eye on the charts. The "C" teams are another matter
with Toyota looking strong at this point and the only one likely to
regularly challenge the B's but again it's difficult to tell and they
could well be among the B's. Toro Rosso look strong and Honda look set
to disappoint further. Mind you someone recently reminded me to never
play poker with Ross Brawn, so maybe they'll surprise? And with RB at
the helm I'd be surprised if Honda does not show the greatest
improvement by years end.
15/02/2008
Well with only two tests left before Melbourne, performance seems to
be pretty much as expected with Ferrari set to dominate and McLaren to
lead the "B" teams or perhaps fill the gap between them and Ferrari.
Williams and Red Bull look the strongest of the B's with Renault and
BMW needing improvement. I'd bet money that Nico and Mark will step on
the podium more than once this year, that much I know as Eddy might
say. However with the teams undoubtedly masking their performance in a
number of ways it is difficult to be certain. Somehow when one watches
the Renault "Team" at work it's difficult to imagine them not being
very competitive so I reckon there's more there than meets the eye on
the charts. The "C" teams are another matter with Toyota looking
strong at this point and the only one likely to regularly challenge
the B's but again it's difficult to tell and they could well be among
the B's. Toro Rosso look strong and Honda look set to disappoint
further. Mind you someone recently reminded me to never play poker
with Ross Brawn, so maybe they'll surprise? And with RB at the helm
I'd be surprised if Honda does not show the greatest improvement by
years end.
At the end of the day analysing the testing is a waste of time but a
lot of fun.
beers,
build