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MoCo Biz Bad

Reply from: Schmoe
Date: 14 Apr 2008, 21:15
MoCo Biz Bad

This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the inevitably
easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing is I still
see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock RK's for $17k.
I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for more than the
original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased chaps and sing
Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.

AP
Harley-Davidson Falls on Outlook Worries
Monday April 14, 1:18 pm ET
Shares of Motorcycle Maker Harley-Davidson Drop on Concerns It May Reduce
2008 Profit Outlook

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson are down on worries that the
iconic motorcycle maker will be forced to cut its 2008 guidance as a result
of slumping sales.
"A reduction is likely to create near-term selling, despite Street estimates
already below guidance," Soleil Securities Group analyst Michael Millman
wrote in a note to investors.

Millman said that retail sales have shown no improvement since January, when
Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson Inc. projected 2008 earnings-per-share
growth of 4 percent to 7 percent.

Based on the company's 2007 profit of $3.74 per share, the guidance implies
2008 earnings of about $3.89 to $4 per share.

U.S. retail sales keep getting worse and aren't expected to improve in the
near term, Millman said.

However, Millman said Harley-Davidson's shares could still prove to be a
good investment down the road. He backed his "Buy" rating and $54 share
price target.

"We continue to believe the shares could be significantly higher 12 to 18
months out, thus we are retaining our long-term buy rating," he wrote.

Millman said he expects Harley-Davidson, which reports its first-quarter
results on Thursday, to post a 2008 profit of $3.28 per share, while
analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect a profit of $3.63 per share, on
average.

Harley-Davidson shares fell $1.31, or 3.5 percent, to $35.75 in afternoon
trading.


Reply from: Spanky
Date: 14 Apr 2008, 21:55
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Apr 14, 3:15 pm, "Schmoe" <s...@s,net > wrote:

> NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson are down on worries that the
> iconic motorcycle maker will be forced to cut its 2008 guidance as a result
> of slumping sales.

Good. Put the dealers on the shit end of the stick for a while, and
maybe their service departments will stop treating cash strapped
owners of older bikes like shit stains.

I'd like to have some work done, but not at inflated and/or fixed flat
labor rates, and not with anything that's a shit part because they use
"HD only".

My Evo could use a fresh set of reliable gaskets all around, as well
as some time on a Dyno to get it running just right. Something ain't
quite right with 4th gear either and if I miss it (although rare) at
WOT to the 6200 rev limiter, I blow a rocker gasket every time. Cheap
rubber HD shit. There's gotta be something better out there.

-Spanky
Damn, I need some cheese to go with that whine. <sfsf>

Reply from: Bob Mann
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 04:33
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Mon, 14 Apr 2008 12:55:43 -0700 (PDT), Spanky
<smarshallpaul@gmail,com > wrote:

>On Apr 14, 3:15 pm, "Schmoe" <s...@s,net > wrote:
>
>> NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson are down on worries that the
>> iconic motorcycle maker will be forced to cut its 2008 guidance as a result
>> of slumping sales.
>
>Good. Put the dealers on the shit end of the stick for a while, and
>maybe their service departments will stop treating cash strapped
>owners of older bikes like shit stains.
>
>I'd like to have some work done, but not at inflated and/or fixed flat
>labor rates, and not with anything that's a shit part because they use
>"HD only".
>
>My Evo could use a fresh set of reliable gaskets all around, as well
>as some time on a Dyno to get it running just right. Something ain't
>quite right with 4th gear either and if I miss it (although rare) at
>WOT to the 6200 rev limiter, I blow a rocker gasket every time. Cheap
>rubber HD shit. There's gotta be something better out there.
>

James. Available from Drag Specialties. Dealers should be able to
order them. Ours stocks them.

Reply from: Rick Begeman
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 05:33
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

In article
<38918715-f078-4760-a369-5d4b24c4869a@24g2000hsh.googlegroups,com >,
Spanky <smarshallpaul@gmail,com > wrote:

> On Apr 14, 3:15 pm, "Schmoe" <s...@s,net > wrote:
>
> > NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson are down on worries that the
> > iconic motorcycle maker will be forced to cut its 2008 guidance as a result
> > of slumping sales.
>
> Good. Put the dealers on the shit end of the stick for a while, and
> maybe their service departments will stop treating cash strapped
> owners of older bikes like shit stains.
>
> I'd like to have some work done, but not at inflated and/or fixed flat
> labor rates, and not with anything that's a shit part because they use
> "HD only".
>
> My Evo could use a fresh set of reliable gaskets all around, as well
> as some time on a Dyno to get it running just right. Something ain't
> quite right with 4th gear either and if I miss it (although rare) at
> WOT to the 6200 rev limiter, I blow a rocker gasket every time. Cheap
> rubber HD shit. There's gotta be something better out there.
>
> -Spanky
> Damn, I need some cheese to go with that whine. <sfsf>

Posi-shift by Sputhe

and your shifting problems go away

--
Ryder Rick

Reply from: Invisible68
Date: 14 Apr 2008, 22:41
Re: MoCo Biz Bad


"Schmoe" <s@s,net > wrote in message news:4803ad63$0$25028$607ed4bc@cv,net ...
> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing
> is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock
> RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for
> more than the original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased
> chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.
>
> AP
> Harley-Davidson Falls on Outlook Worries
> Monday April 14, 1:18 pm ET
> Shares of Motorcycle Maker Harley-Davidson Drop on Concerns It May Reduce
> 2008 Profit Outlook
>
> NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson are down on worries that the
> iconic motorcycle maker will be forced to cut its 2008 guidance as a
> result of slumping sales.
> "A reduction is likely to create near-term selling, despite Street
> estimates already below guidance," Soleil Securities Group analyst Michael
> Millman wrote in a note to investors.
>
> Millman said that retail sales have shown no improvement since January,
> when Milwaukee-based Harley-Davidson Inc. projected 2008
> earnings-per-share growth of 4 percent to 7 percent.
>
> Based on the company's 2007 profit of $3.74 per share, the guidance
> implies 2008 earnings of about $3.89 to $4 per share.
>
> U.S. retail sales keep getting worse and aren't expected to improve in the
> near term, Millman said.
>
> However, Millman said Harley-Davidson's shares could still prove to be a
> good investment down the road. He backed his "Buy" rating and $54 share
> price target.
>
> "We continue to believe the shares could be significantly higher 12 to 18
> months out, thus we are retaining our long-term buy rating," he wrote.
>
> Millman said he expects Harley-Davidson, which reports its first-quarter
> results on Thursday, to post a 2008 profit of $3.28 per share, while
> analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect a profit of $3.63 per share,
> on average.
>
> Harley-Davidson shares fell $1.31, or 3.5 percent, to $35.75 in afternoon
> trading.
That is just the kind of news out there.... they say the housing thing is
falling apart too and you won't see any increase in building for at least
another year!!! they say the first 3 months of this year housing is down to
1992 levels of building.... well no shit... the mid west and other parts of
the country have had more snow in 30, 50, 70 years.... who wants to build a
house or BUY a motorcycle when are too busy shoveling all that damn snow...
it has to warm up for a good week .. without rain to help both business... I
am sick of all these stories selling gloom and doom.... then as if a
miricle after the election there is a hugh turn around like just with the
fact of a new president is coming into office changes everything.... next
you will be hearing how appliance and furnature places are hit hard.... well
who buys that stuff..... people that build or buy new houses.....

ok I'm done rantting.... have a drink on me... untill it warms up and we
can do it IRL...

Invisible68
(going to office to sell a house that I am not suppose to!!!)



Reply from: me@nospam,com
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 19:47
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:41:50 -0500, "Invisible68" <plathrop@lcom,net >
wrote:


>That is just the kind of news out there.... they say the housing thing is
>falling apart too and you won't see any increase in building for at least
>another year!!! they say the first 3 months of this year housing is down to
>1992 levels of building.... well no shit... the mid west and other parts of
>the country have had more snow in 30, 50, 70 years.... who wants to build a
>house or BUY a motorcycle when are too busy shoveling all that damn snow...
>it has to warm up for a good week .. without rain to help both business... I
>am sick of all these stories selling gloom and doom.... then as if a
>miricle after the election there is a hugh turn around like just with the
>fact of a new president is coming into office changes everything.... next
>you will be hearing how appliance and furnature places are hit hard.... well
>who buys that stuff..... people that build or buy new houses.....
>
>ok I'm done rantting.... have a drink on me... untill it warms up and we
>can do it IRL...

it's merely a matter of time, its not because of a "bad" economy, its
more because the market is flooded, (with everything!) the market is
flooded with motorcycles, cars, houses, we had such high record
sales of everything for so long it has to come to an end at some
point, does everyone think they can just keep building and people will
keep buying, its a cycle, and this one is slowing again.

even up here in the sticks, they were hoping to see 400 family's a
year growth, but building permits for new housing have been at over
1000 per year, hmm didn't anyone think to look into the market before
planning on building 600 more homes a year than new families?




>
>Invisible68
>(going to office to sell a house that I am not suppose to!!!)
>





Reply from: Kickstart
Date: 17 Apr 2008, 23:52
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

> even up here in the sticks, they were hoping to see 400 family's a
> year growth, but building permits for new housing have been at over
> 1000 per year, hmm didn't anyone think to look into the market before
> planning on building 600 more homes a year than new families?
>

the logistics wouldn't allow for that amount of cipherin.
You'd be countin fingers and toes and trying to keep everyone in line and
stayin with their groups. jeez what a conundrum

kickstart



Reply from: me@nospam,com
Date: 18 Apr 2008, 15:54
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Thu, 17 Apr 2008 17:52:25 -0400, "Kickstart"
<cwalker3@tampabay.rr,com > wrote:

>> even up here in the sticks, they were hoping to see 400 family's a
>> year growth, but building permits for new housing have been at over
>> 1000 per year, hmm didn't anyone think to look into the market before
>> planning on building 600 more homes a year than new families?
>>
>
>the logistics wouldn't allow for that amount of cipherin.
>You'd be countin fingers and toes and trying to keep everyone in line and
>stayin with their groups. jeez what a conundrum

still demand determines the market

supply has outrun the demand across the board, effect the housing
market like this and what else falls with it? carpeting, tile,
stoves, ranges, dishwashers, lawn mowers, edgers, sod, seed, you get
the picture.

no different than the Motorcycle market, the higher dollar item will
be effected first

>
>kickstart
>





Reply from: Tud
Date: 14 Apr 2008, 23:38
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

Schmoe...
> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing
> is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock
> RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for
> more than the original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased
> chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.

I was at a bike show on the weekend and was surprised by the prices, they
seem to have dropped considerably around here in the past 5 years. Old news
to those that go to the dealership on a regular basis.

--
Tud
SENS BS#111 LFS#32 FLF MISFIT Vermort AH#115
http :// ah115,com
Sisyphus rides a Triumph



Reply from: JMark
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 00:22
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

Tud wrote:
> Schmoe...
>> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
>> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing
>> is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock
>> RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for
>> more than the original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased
>> chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.
>
> I was at a bike show on the weekend and was surprised by the prices, they
> seem to have dropped considerably around here in the past 5 years. Old news
> to those that go to the dealership on a regular basis.


Heck, I was at a dealer getting the low down on a pivot bolt for the '87
and decided to walk through the overly abundant stocked show room and
had to beat back the farking salesmen - must be hungry.

--
JMark

Reply from: DM
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 01:33
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

JMark wrote:
> Tud wrote:
>> Schmoe...
>>> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
>>> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny
>>> thing is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e.
>>> '04 stock RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell
>>> a Harley for more than the original store cost. Probably the same
>>> guys who wear creased chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of
>>> their voices at karaoke bars.
>>
>> I was at a bike show on the weekend and was surprised by the prices,
>> they seem to have dropped considerably around here in the past 5
>> years. Old news to those that go to the dealership on a regular basis.
>
>
> Heck, I was at a dealer getting the low down on a pivot bolt for the '87
> and decided to walk through the overly abundant stocked show room and
> had to beat back the farking salesmen - must be hungry.
>
> --
> JMark

Yep. My wife and I were passing the new store in Rocklin CA yesterday in
my wife's car and decided to stop by. I don't know why they moved the
1/2 mile down the road last year because their old place had plenty of
room and good atmosphere. Whatever.

Anyway, we're no sooner in the door than a salesman literally jumps out
of his office chair and makes a beeline for us. "Can I answer any
questions for you folks?" "Nope, I'm good." Checked their prices, above
MSRP, lots of bikes but the place was dead.

Drank a bunch of water out of their cooler and left.

Fins BS#221

Reply from: me@nospam,com
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 18:15
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Mon, 14 Apr 2008 18:22:04 -0400, JMark <woof@noaddy.rom> wrote:

>Tud wrote:
>> Schmoe...
>>> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
>>> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing
>>> is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock
>>> RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for
>>> more than the original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased
>>> chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.
>>
>> I was at a bike show on the weekend and was surprised by the prices, they
>> seem to have dropped considerably around here in the past 5 years. Old news
>> to those that go to the dealership on a regular basis.
>
>
>Heck, I was at a dealer getting the low down on a pivot bolt for the '87
> and decided to walk through the overly abundant stocked show room and
>had to beat back the farking salesmen - must be hungry.



Porn is still doing good...........

<grin>

been to fl and back already, might have to go back again next weekend,
dinner if time allows and I can get Karen away from the grandchild?




Reply from: JMark
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 18:38
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

me@nospam,com wrote:
> On Mon, 14 Apr 2008 18:22:04 -0400, JMark <woof@noaddy.rom> wrote:
>
>> Tud wrote:
>>> Schmoe...
>>>> This reads to me as an expected glut in store inventories and the
>>>> inevitably easier price negotiation that's usually associated. Funny thing
>>>> is I still see used prices far higher than they should be i.e. '04 stock
>>>> RK's for $17k. I guess some guys still think you can resell a Harley for
>>>> more than the original store cost. Probably the same guys who wear creased
>>>> chaps and sing Born in the USA at the top of their voices at karaoke bars.
>>> I was at a bike show on the weekend and was surprised by the prices, they
>>> seem to have dropped considerably around here in the past 5 years. Old news
>>> to those that go to the dealership on a regular basis.
>>
>> Heck, I was at a dealer getting the low down on a pivot bolt for the '87
>> and decided to walk through the overly abundant stocked show room and
>> had to beat back the farking salesmen - must be hungry.
>
>
>
> Porn is still doing good...........
>
> <grin>
>
> been to fl and back already, might have to go back again next weekend,
> dinner if time allows and I can get Karen away from the grandchild?

You did that already - in the truck?


--
JMark

Reply from: me@nospam,com
Date: 15 Apr 2008, 20:57
Re: MoCo Biz Bad

On Tue, 15 Apr 2008 12:38:22 -0400, JMark <woof@noaddy.rom> wrote:

>>
>> been to fl and back already, might have to go back again next weekend,
>> dinner if time allows and I can get Karen away from the grandchild?
>
>You did that already - in the truck?

and I "might" need to get the truck back down there..............

Had I thought, I would have thrown the bike in it and left it down
here for now, but who's to know right...

do you know how much gas costs to fill a truck? I'm spoiled my truck
gets just about 2 miles a week on it,
have I mentioned I hate traveling in 4 wheels......






Reply from: Dale R
Date: 18 Apr 2008, 16:49
Re: MoCo Biz Bad


<me@nospam,com > wrote in message
news:9fu9045anhe4qf176cbpbo2aqa23jqetrj@4ax,com ...
> On Tue, 15 Apr 2008 12:38:22 -0400, JMark <woof@noaddy.rom> wrote:
>
>>>
>
> do you know how much gas costs to fill a truck? >


The one ton took $500 to fill up in IN this week. So I feel for ya :>)

Dale R




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