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Post Subject:

An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Reply from: Mark N
Date: 10 Mar 2008, 05:32
An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Even though this weekend was the official start to the big-time racing
season, normally cause for pure joy, this one ended up giving me a
certain wistful feeling. That's because in the midst of this spring
rebirth of racing there was a pall of death of the real thing hanging in
the air.

First it was the announcement that the AMA had done the expected,
effectively selling off the series to Nascar, the godfathers of
manufactured competitiveness. The possibilities are almost endless, but
the one thing that doesn't quite seem even remotely possible is that
American racing will end up looking much like the racing in WSB, BSB,
JSB or any other SB-based series anywhere in the world. These guys have
their own ideas, and they don't take prisoners. In the end there may be
more fans coming through the gates, although they may not exactly be the
same folks we've been used to rubbing shoulders with (cue the music -
"dueling banjos" from Deliverance...), but what we're watching is
certainly going to be different, and the factories and top riders in the
series better start to understand that now.

Then today came the very exciting MotoGP opener, although pretty strung
out in the end. Aside from the Yamaha/Michelin front row that got all
the press and a race with no readily apparent tire advantage, most
telling was that top four - Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Dovizioso. In
case you hadn't noticed, that's a combined 218kg, or 480lbs, of rider
weight, or an average of 55kg / 120lbs per rider. Now given that the
lightest champion in GP premier class history was Stoner, the heaviest
of this group, one has to recognize a massive change in GP. Going
entirely unreported by the press, of course.

With Toseland a very competitive 6th, there were also three rookies in
the top six. Now does this mean we have an extraordinary crop of rookies
this year? No, of course not - Lorenzo couldn't ever beat both Pedrosa
and Stoner before they left the 250 class, Dovizioso was no Pedrosa on
the 250 Honda, and Toseland was hardly a blazing rocket in his seven
years in WSB. What it shows is what Qatar qualifying also showed, as did
Stoner's championship last year - these bikes are getting progressively
easier to ride fast, and exactly how fast depends on things largely
outside the rider's control - how well he matches up with the machine,
how good the machine is, how good the tires are. At Qatar it was the
Michelin qualifiers and not the Bridgestones that worked, the Hondas
didn't so much, so the Yamahas swept the front row. Almost doesn't
matter who the riders were.

Fading to fifth was Rossi, on what appeared to be the best bike and what
are usually the best tires. Really kind of sad, after a fiery charge to
the lead early on that reminded one of the past and gave his fans real
hope. So was this a sign that he's really done, a shadow of his former
self? I don't think so, I think it's an indication of two things: one,
he never was quite as good as people seemed to think/hope, and two, when
you don't have the right stuff today in MotoGP, you're going to get
beaten, doesn't matter who you are. Today was a Michelin day, and he
chose the wrong side on that matter. That may not change much, as it
seems unlikely that Bridgestone will focus their development on him the
way Michelin used to, to the detriment of their other riders. And that
he was beaten in the final laps by a MotoGP rookie on a lease Honda (one
based on the '07 disaster) says an awful lot about where things stand in
GP today. Of course that he outweighs Lorenzo and Dovizioso by some
25-30 pounds doesn't help any - makes me think of those Vale the Giant
photos taken after the Valencia finale in '04, with 125 champ Andrea and
250 champ Dani. Still, to see Europe's Frankenstein monster, the first
manufactured champion, go down like that showed how far things have gone.

It was interesting to hear Mladin's comment on the SB pregame show on
TV, that Spies will find racing a MotoGP machine on the tracks of Europe
much easier than racing a SB over here ("I think once he does leave
here, once he gets on those bikes he's gonna find them very, very easy
to ride on those racetracks compared to riding a superbike on these
racetracks"). Definitely the overall feeling about the bikes, that
today's 800s are nothing like the 500s of the distant past, or even the
early 990s of more recent days, which is why these rookies can be so
fast. Of course that doesn't mean winning is easy, rather it probably is
impossible today unless the equipment is the right stuff. With this
weekend tilted, if only slightly, toward the Michelins, the rookies
shined. Land on a Bridgestone track, one that Toseland doesn't know, and
it's a different ballgame.

So what about Stoner? Well, he still has that magic combination and it's
still working for him. You have to give him credit for coming from
behind and winning going away on Bridgestones this weekend, considering
the other Bridgestone Ducatis finished 11th, 14th and 15th. But you have
to recognize that he shared that podium with a MotoGP rookie in his
first race and a guy with a very sore hand who missed most of winter
testing and was on the wayward factory Honda that looked to be going
nowhere this weekend - where was the serious competition? Will it ever
show up this year? Michelin may not have caught Bridgestone, Rossi is
just another Bridgestone guy and they don't know him or his bike,
Pedrosa is still on Michelins and that questionable Honda, Melandri
can't ride the Ducati, Hayden has everything working against him, etc.,
etc. But he's still doing it, and not being the guy they wanted to be
doing it does bring a smirk to the face - even the best-laid plans...

No, the real heroes this weekend were Toseland, who hung in all the way
despite his slower satellite team Yamaha and perhaps satellite team
Michelins and his inferior superbike development and his extra 30 pounds
(although some five kilos off his SB weight, the "GP diet") and
(somewhat) inferior passport. Good stuff, James. And Mladin, the crafty
veteran working harder than ever and claiming maximum points out of
Daytona by taking pole and leading all the laps to the win, and doing it
all with that same old attitude. Definitely old school stuff, but a hard
ass who refuses to quietly fade away, and well worth applauding in these
watershed days.

Yet it feels like genuine racing is over anyway, being replaced by
income-producing "entertainment". In GP, winning takes the right bike,
the right tires, the right passport, the right size, much more than the
most talent. The guys in suits with corporate-sized wallets determine
the winner more than the guys in leathers with bovine-sized stones. In
WSB the ship has supposedly been righted by close racing thanks to
crappy spec Italian tires, and now it's back on course with rules-driven
manufacturer parity - defined, apparently, as the one Italian factory
having three times the wins of the four Japanese OEMs combined. And who
knows where American racing is headed, but the course certainly has
changed in a big way.

A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...

Reply from: guig
Date: 10 Mar 2008, 08:49
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > said:

>
> A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...

*yawn*


Reply from: Julian Bond
Date: 10 Mar 2008, 09:31
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

guig <guig@yerawathame . com > Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:49:24
>On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > said:
>
>> A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...
>
>*yawn*

Quite. Welcome back to a quite amazing collection of prejudices. We
missed them.

I think there were two major stories in Qatar MotoGP.

- How the hell does Stoner do that? He's way ahead of all the other
Ducatis and only one other Bridgestone runner could stay even close and
he had major tyre life issues.

- 18 riders start, 16 effectively finish and the field is split into 7
who were close and almost in the same TV shot (15s) and 9 no-hopers. Its
a good thing 6 of those 7 fought so hard and produced such good racing
because other wise the show would look pretty damn thin.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar . com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: * w w w .ecademy . com / T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: * w w w .voidstar . com / skype:julian.bond?chat
Certain Limitations Apply

Reply from: Champ
Date: 10 Mar 2008, 10:21
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On Mon, 10 Mar 2008 08:31:25 GMT, Julian Bond
<julian_bond@voidstar . com > wrote:

>guig <guig@yerawathame . com > Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:49:24
>>On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > said:
>>
>>> A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...
>>
>>*yawn*
>
>Quite. Welcome back to a quite amazing collection of prejudices. We
>missed them.

Only a bit :-)


>I think there were two major stories in Qatar MotoGP.
>
>- How the hell does Stoner do that? He's way ahead of all the other
>Ducatis and only one other Bridgestone runner could stay even close and
>he had major tyre life issues.

I think this was really a Michelin race (someone mentioned elsewhere
the experience Michelin have in 24 hour endurance racing, and coping
with night time temperatures). The two current stand-out riders,
Stoner and Rossi, managed to buck what should otherwise have been a
Michelin whitewash.

Stoner's performance was amazing, I think. No one on a Ducati was
near him, nor anyone on Bridgestones. The guy really is the real
deal.


--
Champ
neal at champ dot org dot uk

Reply from: Henry
Date: 10 Mar 2008, 21:52
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On Mar 10, 10:21 pm, Champ <n...@champ.org.uk> wrote:
> On Mon, 10 Mar 2008 08:31:25 GMT, Julian Bond
>
> <julian b...@voidstar . com > wrote:
> >guig <g...@yerawathame . com > Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:49:24
> >>On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusb...@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > said:
>
> >>> A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...
>
> >>*yawn*
>
> >Quite. Welcome back to a quite amazing collection of prejudices. We
> >missed them.
>
> Only a bit :-)
>
> >I think there were two major stories in Qatar MotoGP.
>
> >- How the hell does Stoner do that? He's way ahead of all the other
> >Ducatis and only one other Bridgestone runner could stay even close and
> >he had major tyre life issues.
>
> I think this was really a Michelin race (someone mentioned elsewhere
> the experience Michelin have in 24 hour endurance racing, and coping
> with night time temperatures). The two current stand-out riders,
> Stoner and Rossi, managed to buck what should otherwise have been a
> Michelin whitewash.
>
> Stoner's performance was amazing, I think. No one on a Ducati was
> near him, nor anyone on Bridgestones. The guy really is the real
> deal.
>
> --
> Champ
> neal at champ dot org dot uk

reminds me a bit of Simon Crafar on the Red Bull Yamaha some time ago,
with his Dunlop tyres. Spanked Mick Doohan on his nasty Michelins at
the British GP

Reply from: Julian Bond
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 08:09
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Champ <news@champ.org.uk> Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:21:34
>I think this was really a Michelin race (someone mentioned elsewhere
>the experience Michelin have in 24 hour endurance racing, and coping
>with night time temperatures). The two current stand-out riders,
>Stoner and Rossi, managed to buck what should otherwise have been a
>Michelin whitewash.
>
>Stoner's performance was amazing, I think. No one on a Ducati was
>near him, nor anyone on Bridgestones. The guy really is the real
>deal.

So did the increase in tyre allocation help things? The story goes that
Bridgestone sent over one set of trucks for the final testing and for
the race. There were a very small number flown in between the two.
Whereas Michelin did two separate manufacturing and shipping runs so
they could tailor the race weekend tyres according they learned in
testing.

When it came to the sessions, there was a big temperature difference
between the 1st and 2nd session each day but the same people were going
the same speed in each. If last year was a guide, and tyre allocation
was a problem we should have seen some big differences. When it got to
qualifying some riders had 3 and 4 qualifiers. So just maybe the tyre
allocation is a bit easier on everyone, we won't see people being
completely nowhere in some sessions and final qualifying will be a bit
more like it used to be.

The other big factor was fuel. It was very noticeable that the times in
morning warm up had taken the rest of the weekend and shaken it up. It
seems that they're all running a very different fuel set up in practice
compared with the race. Or at least for the last few minutes of each
session when they're chasing a time. And the big losers here were Tech3.
Toseland and Edwards need the new engine as soon as possible for its
fuel consumption as much as it's top end.

Does anyone know what mix and match Honda Pedrosa and Hayden ran in the
race? It's getting hard to keep track of what chassis, engine, and aero
package they're running at any one time. And with the engine is that
last year's, this year's or a combination? If the 2007 engine doesn't
fit in the 2008 chassis, then there's a 2008 bottom end with a valve
spring copy of the 2007 head bolted on it. One guess was that Pedrosa
needed 10 laps on the old bike to get himself back in the groove and to
fix in his head what worked for him. And that was the reason the 2007
bikes turned up. But by doing that he put doubt into Hayden's head who
then had to have a 2007 bike too.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar . com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: * w w w .ecademy . com / T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: * w w w .voidstar . com / skype:julian.bond?chat
Multigrain For A Unique Taste

Reply from: Michael Sierchio
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 03:13
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Julian Bond wrote:
>> On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net >
>> said:

[ drivel snipped ]

> Quite. Welcome back to a quite amazing collection of prejudices. We
> missed them.

Izzat the Royal "we" ? That boy couldn't pour piss out of
a boot, even with instructions written on the heel.


--
Do not send me email replies -- this is a honeypot
address for spam.

Reply from: guig
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 09:43
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On 2008-03-10 08:31:25 +0000, Julian Bond <julian bond@voidstar . com > said:

> guig <guig@yerawathame . com > Mon, 10 Mar 2008 07:49:24
>> On 2008-03-10 04:32:28 +0000, Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > said:
>>
>>> A brave new world, and it kinda brings a tear to the eye...
>>
>> *yawn*
>
> Quite. Welcome back to a quite amazing collection of prejudices. We
> missed them.

>
> I think there were two major stories in Qatar MotoGP.
>
> - How the hell does Stoner do that? He's way ahead of all the other
> Ducatis and only one other Bridgestone runner could stay even close and
> he had major tyre life issues.

>
> - 18 riders start, 16 effectively finish and the field is split into 7
> who were close and almost in the same TV shot (15s) and 9 no-hopers.
> Its a good thing 6 of those 7 fought so hard and produced such good
> racing because other wise the show would look pretty damn thin.

I've still to get time to watch the damn race ....


Reply from: Dave
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 04:44
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On Sun, 09 Mar 2008 21:32:28 -0700, Mark N
<menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote:

>Then today came the very exciting MotoGP opener, although pretty strung
>out in the end. Aside from the Yamaha/Michelin front row that got all
>the press and a race with no readily apparent tire advantage, most
>telling was that top four - Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Dovizioso. In
>case you hadn't noticed, that's a combined 218kg, or 480lbs, of rider
>weight, or an average of 55kg / 120lbs per rider. Now given that the
>lightest champion in GP premier class history was Stoner, the heaviest
>of this group, one has to recognize a massive change in GP. Going
>entirely unreported by the press, of course.

I don't think you can credibly limit your observation to just those
four riders. That's just convenient manipulation of facts. You need
to expand that view to the top six, at least, as Rossi and Toseland
were right there all the way to the stripe and Dovi only took fourth
on the last lap. I could even make a weak case that you should
include Colin since he was much more involved with the group in front
than the one behind, but I'll concede that he was just out of touch
for a large part of the race.

The announcers did mention that Toseland dropped 15 pounds of muscle
because "that's the way it is in MotoGP". Mind you, not 15 pounds of
fat, and not 15 pounds of just getting in better shape (because James
is supremely fit by all accounts), but actually losing 15 pounds of
solid muscle just to be more competitive.


>
>With Toseland a very competitive 6th, there were also three rookies in
>the top six. Now does this mean we have an extraordinary crop of rookies
>this year? No, of course not - Lorenzo couldn't ever beat both Pedrosa
>and Stoner before they left the 250 class, Dovizioso was no Pedrosa on
>the 250 Honda, and Toseland was hardly a blazing rocket in his seven
>years in WSB. What it shows is what Qatar qualifying also showed, as did
>Stoner's championship last year - these bikes are getting progressively
>easier to ride fast, and exactly how fast depends on things largely
>outside the rider's control - how well he matches up with the machine,
>how good the machine is, how good the tires are. At Qatar it was the
>Michelin qualifiers and not the Bridgestones that worked, the Hondas
>didn't so much, so the Yamahas swept the front row. Almost doesn't
>matter who the riders were.


The oddity is, if the bikes are getting progressively easier to ride,
why aren't all those mid-pack runners getting faster? Why aren't the
guys that we know actually have talent and experience moving towards
the front better than the rookies? I'm including guys like Melandri,
Hayden, Vermeulen, Hopkins, and Edwards here. Guys who were near the
front on a semi-regular basis before, who can't consistently get there
on these "easier" bikes. I know there's a lot of factors at play and
most of those guys have their unique reasons.


>Fading to fifth was Rossi, on what appeared to be the best bike and what
>are usually the best tires. Really kind of sad, after a fiery charge to
>the lead early on that reminded one of the past and gave his fans real
>hope. So was this a sign that he's really done, a shadow of his former
>self? I don't think so, I think it's an indication of two things: one,
>he never was quite as good as people seemed to think/hope, and two, when
>you don't have the right stuff today in MotoGP, you're going to get
>beaten, doesn't matter who you are. Today was a Michelin day, and he
>chose the wrong side on that matter. That may not change much, as it
>seems unlikely that Bridgestone will focus their development on him the
>way Michelin used to, to the detriment of their other riders. And that
>he was beaten in the final laps by a MotoGP rookie on a lease Honda (one
>based on the '07 disaster) says an awful lot about where things stand in
>GP today. Of course that he outweighs Lorenzo and Dovizioso by some
>25-30 pounds doesn't help any - makes me think of those Vale the Giant
>photos taken after the Valencia finale in '04, with 125 champ Andrea and
>250 champ Dani. Still, to see Europe's Frankenstein monster, the first
>manufactured champion, go down like that showed how far things have gone.

Rossi's still a top rider, no doubt about that. However, I think his
reactions to the past couple seasons have been very telling about him
as a person and a rider. He wants to have the advantage. He expects
it. He demands it. When he doesn't have it he can still win, but he
certainly doesn't dominate. We're only one round down, though, and
it's way too early to draw conclusions about this season for Rossi.
Personally, if he does lose the championship, I hope it's the
Bridgestones that does him in. I'd like to see him right there all
season though.

Interesting that the announcer actually called out that Michelin
develops and provides different levels of tires for different riders,
while Bridgestone has an equal access policy. Inferring, of course,
that Rossi will have to live without the preferential treatment he was
so accustomed to. I'm generally not in favor of spec tires for a
series, but I would like to see more of the equal access policy
applied by other vendors and other series.


>So what about Stoner? Well, he still has that magic combination and it's
>still working for him.

He's still proof positive that it's more about the combination of
factors coming together. Top team, top bike, top rider, and a
rider/bike/tire style that all suit each other. I'd say Yosh Suzuki
proves that just as well.

One thing I noticed was that the Duc didn't have anywhere near the
power advantage they had last year. Casey had a tough time passing
down the straight even with a two bike draft, whereas last season he
was blowing by them quite easily. That plus the patience he showed
made the victory all the more impressive. I'm not so sure I'd dismiss
his competition as easily as you did.

>No, the real heroes this weekend were Toseland

Agreed.

>And Mladin

Ditto.

Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
entirely healthy.

>Yet it feels like genuine racing is over anyway, being replaced by
>income-producing "entertainment".

I wouldn't go that far...yet. The new AMA situation does concern me
greatly.


Reply from: Carl Sundquist
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 05:53
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)


"Dave" <no1@home . com > wrote in message
news:0gtbt3dc7d6stmv59sice728fgt46hvtch@4ax . com ...
>
> The announcers did mention that Toseland dropped 15 pounds of muscle
> because "that's the way it is in MotoGP". Mind you, not 15 pounds of
> fat, and not 15 pounds of just getting in better shape (because James
> is supremely fit by all accounts), but actually losing 15 pounds of
> solid muscle just to be more competitive.

I heard that also, and view it with great skepticism. You can only lose
muscle in one of two ways: atrophy or starvation. If it is atrophy, that
would also diminish his physical conditioning and he would have had to have
been essentially bedridden for the offseason with a diet restricting
calories to slightly less than his basal metabolic rate to avoid gaining
weight as fat. With starvation, if you do not feed yourself properly and
sufficiently then the body sees itself as a storehouse and turns on itself
to acquire the calories needed for sustenance. Both are dangerous and
ridiculous ways to lose muscle. It is much more likely that JT has a good
physio/trainer, did a lot of aerobic training and lost bodyfat and the
announcer didn't know what he was talking about. Hopefully his lean body
mass did not change.

>
> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
> little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
> unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
> entirely healthy.

Generally that is in the range of 3% bodyfat or less, which is
extraordinarily lean.

Here
* w w w .superbikeplanet . com /image/2008/usasuperbike/daytona/kp1/3.htm I
can see your point, but here
* w w w .superbikeplanet . com /image/2008/usasuperbike/daytona/kp1/9.htm he
seems to be ok.


Reply from: guig
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 09:45
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On 2008-03-11 04:53:56 +0000, "Carl Sundquist" <carlsun@cox . net > said:

>
>>
>> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
>> little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
>> unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
>> entirely healthy.
>
> Generally that is in the range of 3% bodyfat or less, which is
> extraordinarily lean.
>
> Here
> * w w w .superbikeplanet . com /image/2008/usasuperbike/daytona/kp1/3.htm
> I can see your point, but here
> * w w w .superbikeplanet . com /image/2008/usasuperbike/daytona/kp1/9.htm
> he seems to be ok.

Wasn't that the body fat % mentioned whenever people spoke of Herschel
Walker of the Cowboys and Vikings?


Reply from: T3
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 06:44
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On 2008-03-10 23:44:52 -0400, Dave <no1@home . com > said:

> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
> little overboard on the fitness regime?

Mat looked drawn to me, almost like he was getting over mono, or
something and BBoz dropped a few lbs. too, though he didn't have that
sickly look like Mladin...


Reply from: Mark N
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 07:25
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Dave wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
>
>> Then today came the very exciting MotoGP opener, although pretty strung
>> out in the end. Aside from the Yamaha/Michelin front row that got all
>> the press and a race with no readily apparent tire advantage, most
>> telling was that top four - Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Dovizioso. In
>> case you hadn't noticed, that's a combined 218kg, or 480lbs, of rider
>> weight, or an average of 55kg / 120lbs per rider. Now given that the
>> lightest champion in GP premier class history was Stoner, the heaviest
>> of this group, one has to recognize a massive change in GP. Going
>> entirely unreported by the press, of course.
>
> I don't think you can credibly limit your observation to just those
> four riders. That's just convenient manipulation of facts. You need
> to expand that view to the top six, at least, as Rossi and Toseland
> were right there all the way to the stripe and Dovi only took fourth
> on the last lap. I could even make a weak case that you should
> include Colin since he was much more involved with the group in front
> than the one behind, but I'll concede that he was just out of touch
> for a large part of the race.

I'm not claiming this single instance as irrefutable proof that
size/weight is the determining factor in GP racing today or anything
like that. But I think if you looked through the entire history of the
premier class you would not find a single race where the top four
finishers weighed less than those guys do. Throw in the lightest
champion ever last year and the lightest average weight for all race
winners and there's no question that a big change is happening. Hell, go
back a few years and you wouldn't even be able to find four riders
anywhere on the grid who weighed as little as these guys do. Actually,
you don't even have to do that, since Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Dovizioso are
the lightest riders in the class, and the lightest that I can recall
ever being in the class.

Looking at the top seven, is it total coincidence that the three
heaviest riders finished behind the four lightest? Between Vale and Dovi
you had a difference of 0.017 second over a race of 2570 seconds - did
Dovi's 30-pound package weight advantage factor in that, make the
difference that was so small? I think it's foolish to simply claim it
didn't.

> The announcers did mention that Toseland dropped 15 pounds of muscle
> because "that's the way it is in MotoGP". Mind you, not 15 pounds of
> fat, and not 15 pounds of just getting in better shape (because James
> is supremely fit by all accounts), but actually losing 15 pounds of
> solid muscle just to be more competitive.

Right, and we hear the occasional remark of this kind, but it remains a
subject that seems to be taboo for anyone to talk about openly. The
closest I have ever seen was that comment by a senior HRC guy a few
years ago about the "compact riders of the future".

>> With Toseland a very competitive 6th, there were also three rookies in
>> the top six. Now does this mean we have an extraordinary crop of rookies
>> this year? No, of course not - Lorenzo couldn't ever beat both Pedrosa
>> and Stoner before they left the 250 class, Dovizioso was no Pedrosa on
>> the 250 Honda, and Toseland was hardly a blazing rocket in his seven
>> years in WSB. What it shows is what Qatar qualifying also showed, as did
>> Stoner's championship last year - these bikes are getting progressively
>> easier to ride fast, and exactly how fast depends on things largely
>> outside the rider's control - how well he matches up with the machine,
>> how good the machine is, how good the tires are. At Qatar it was the
>> Michelin qualifiers and not the Bridgestones that worked, the Hondas
>> didn't so much, so the Yamahas swept the front row. Almost doesn't
>> matter who the riders were.
>
> The oddity is, if the bikes are getting progressively easier to ride,
> why aren't all those mid-pack runners getting faster? Why aren't the
> guys that we know actually have talent and experience moving towards
> the front better than the rookies? I'm including guys like Melandri,
> Hayden, Vermeulen, Hopkins, and Edwards here. Guys who were near the
> front on a semi-regular basis before, who can't consistently get there
> on these "easier" bikes. I know there's a lot of factors at play and
> most of those guys have their unique reasons.

What I was saying is that it's much easier to get 98% of what a bike has
out of it today than ever before, but then guys hit a wall. For anyone
on a Suzuki or Kawasaki that wall came earlier and still does - they
have never won a dry race in MotoGP. Lease bike riders, particularly on
2nd-level Michelins, might be closer but still don't get there much at
all. Guys who have the good factory team bikes designed to suit them, or
happen to luck into that, are the ones who can win, and I doubt that
there were all that many people who didn't pick Stoner, Rossi and
Pedrosa as the likely top three in the championship this year. Melandri
can't seem to ride in the manner that it takes to get the full measure
of the Ducati, but I think there are very few people who think it's
really not a very good bike and it's just Stoner's superiority that is
making it a winner. Hayden gets stuck racing bikes that are largely
designed for a guy who is six inches shorter, nearly 40 pounds lighter,
and came up racing 125s - is that likely to work for him in an era where
bikes are honed to a knife's edge? What might he be doing in Stoner's
situation?

I think it was interesting that Edwards said the race would come down to
Stoner and Lorenzo after qualifying, and he was exactly right. Stoner
had the race pace - Losail is one of his best tracks never mind the
tirees - and Lorenzo had a factory Yamaha on a track where they worked
so very well as well as the Michelins. Essentially Colin was conceding
to the Rat just based on the difference in the motors and top speed, and
that in his very first race.

>> Fading to fifth was Rossi, on what appeared to be the best bike and what
>> are usually the best tires. Really kind of sad, after a fiery charge to
>> the lead early on that reminded one of the past and gave his fans real
>> hope. So was this a sign that he's really done, a shadow of his former
>> self? I don't think so, I think it's an indication of two things: one,
>> he never was quite as good as people seemed to think/hope, and two, when
>> you don't have the right stuff today in MotoGP, you're going to get
>> beaten, doesn't matter who you are. Today was a Michelin day, and he
>> chose the wrong side on that matter. That may not change much, as it
>> seems unlikely that Bridgestone will focus their development on him the
>> way Michelin used to, to the detriment of their other riders. And that
>> he was beaten in the final laps by a MotoGP rookie on a lease Honda (one
>> based on the '07 disaster) says an awful lot about where things stand in
>> GP today. Of course that he outweighs Lorenzo and Dovizioso by some
>> 25-30 pounds doesn't help any - makes me think of those Vale the Giant
>> photos taken after the Valencia finale in '04, with 125 champ Andrea and
>> 250 champ Dani. Still, to see Europe's Frankenstein monster, the first
>> manufactured champion, go down like that showed how far things have gone.
>
> Rossi's still a top rider, no doubt about that. However, I think his
> reactions to the past couple seasons have been very telling about him
> as a person and a rider. He wants to have the advantage. He expects
> it. He demands it. When he doesn't have it he can still win, but he
> certainly doesn't dominate. We're only one round down, though, and
> it's way too early to draw conclusions about this season for Rossi.
> Personally, if he does lose the championship, I hope it's the
> Bridgestones that does him in. I'd like to see him right there all
> season though.

I definitely agree on Rossi, and I don't buy that he's slipped any, it's
just that the situation isn't as tailor-made for him as it used to be. I
do think he's going to be in it all the way, in part because I think the
Yamahas are really pretty good at this point (all four in the top seven
yesterday) and in part because I think the Bridgestones will still work
out to be marginally better. For him perhaps not so much, because they
won't focus their development on him to the degree that Michelin did.
But he's still as good as anyone out there and remains the focus of the
Yamaha effort. His mystique certainly is gone, though. And I do think
his size works against him today, surrounded by midgets.

> Interesting that the announcer actually called out that Michelin
> develops and provides different levels of tires for different riders,
> while Bridgestone has an equal access policy. Inferring, of course,
> that Rossi will have to live without the preferential treatment he was
> so accustomed to. I'm generally not in favor of spec tires for a
> series, but I would like to see more of the equal access policy
> applied by other vendors and other series.

I still think one of the biggest determining factors in who won and who
didn't over the last 15 years or so has been the Michelin secret pecking
order, and Rossi certainly benefited from that. Bridgestone has been
supplying the two factory team riders for Ducati, Suzuki and Kawasaki
over the last several years (plus Tamada for a while), and they have to
have been thankful for that, it's tough to get a toehold in GP. Nice to
see that loyalty and that even-handedness, and I hope it continues.

>> So what about Stoner? Well, he still has that magic combination and it's
>> still working for him.
>
> He's still proof positive that it's more about the combination of
> factors coming together. Top team, top bike, top rider, and a
> rider/bike/tire style that all suit each other. I'd say Yosh Suzuki
> proves that just as well.

Yes, although I think Yosh is a bit more of a case of consistent
commitment, hard work and experience as a team. It's probably hard to
overestimate how much Mladin has had to do with their overall success,
and that probably extends even to WSB and BSB. The guy is driven, and a
decade of that has to have an impact.

> One thing I noticed was that the Duc didn't have anywhere near the
> power advantage they had last year. Casey had a tough time passing
> down the straight even with a two bike draft, whereas last season he
> was blowing by them quite easily. That plus the patience he showed
> made the victory all the more impressive. I'm not so sure I'd dismiss
> his competition as easily as you did.

I really don't dismiss him at all, I think he's very, very good, but
that machine and those tires have a lot to do with all that success. He
must have learned an awful lot last year, and his confidence must be
sky-high as a result of his success. That feeds on itself, as we've seen
repeatedly. He's just a great fit for that bike, and I suspect part of
that is his dirttrack background. Melandri, a typical 125/250-bred Euro,
can't deal with that part of it as well as total faith in the
electronics (and he struggled on Bridgestones last year, so that also
may be an issue), so he's even struggling to get to that 98% level,
while Casey blows by that and is always bumping up against its 100% rev
limiter.

But would it be the same deal if he was on any other machine? That's
where I still have some doubts, I really question whether or not he'd be
winning so much on a Yamaha next to Rossi or a factory Honda next to
Pedrosa. It seems like he's had the amazing luck to fall into his
perfect scenario.

>> No, the real heroes this weekend were Toseland
>
> Agreed.
>
>> And Mladin
>
> Ditto.
>
> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
> little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
> unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
> entirely healthy.

Yeah, I noticed that also. Maybe he's got a MotoGP wildcard ride lined
up as well? ;)

>> Yet it feels like genuine racing is over anyway, being replaced by
>> income-producing "entertainment".
>
> I wouldn't go that far...yet. The new AMA situation does concern me
> greatly.

Wait and see, but it all feels somehow different to me now. Not a major
shift all at once, but sort of crossing a line with no return. The size
thing in GP, the Nascar takeover, the electronics issues, the spec tire
stuff, none of it seems terribly encouraging.


Reply from: Mark N
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 15:34
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

Mark N wrote:
> Dave wrote:

>> One thing I noticed was that the Duc didn't have anywhere near the
>> power advantage they had last year. Casey had a tough time passing
>> down the straight even with a two bike draft, whereas last season he
>> was blowing by them quite easily. That plus the patience he showed
>> made the victory all the more impressive. I'm not so sure I'd dismiss
>> his competition as easily as you did.
>
> I really don't dismiss him at all...

Sorry, misread your comment there. My thought on the competition right
now is that the others just aren't quite where I thought they'd be, or
where they may be later on. Going into the winter break I was picking
Pedrosa to win the championship, but then we saw Honda's pneumi motor
problems and Dani got hurt right out of the box this year, and given
that it's really kind of amazing that Dani was as close as he was on
Sunday, really a function of the Michelin advantage. He should get
better, as should Hayden, but that Nicky actually chose to race the
hated '07 bike on Sunday shows how lost Honda is right now.

Rossi's results will look better when they get to tracks that favor the
Bridgestones more, but it has to be disturbing that he simply couldn't
hang with Stoner and finished 13 seconds back. If Bridgestone doesn't
work to fill his needs specifically, one has to wonder how he's going to
close that gap, because I don't get the sense that Yamaha still has much
left in the tank. Melandri finished 44 seconds back of Stoner and feels
even more hopeless that Capirossi did a year ago. That's an amazing gap,
a full two seconds per lap. Hopkins is hurting and it's not clear that
Kawi has managed to get that bike shaped to his needs yet, as he didn't
take to it right out of the box.

Guys like Lorenzo, Edwards and Dovizioso are pretty dependent on
Michelin having the edge, and looked better in Qatar because of all the
Repsol team problems. Toseland will struggle much more on tracks he
doesn't know, and I think we'll see him slip well out of the top ten on
many occasions. Suzuki still seems to be a season behind, as always.

So if Stoner can build an advantage early on, he may have enough to
repeat even after some of the others get straightened out. Pedrosa
remains the biggest future threat in my mind, based on what Honda might
eventually bring to the table and the possibility that the Michelins may
actually end up an advantage. Rossi doesn't appear to have those
potential edges over Stoner, so he has to do it on his own. Sunday
wasn't a promising start.

But you can't read too much into a night race in Qatar. It may be all
change at Jerez.




Reply from: Henry
Date: 11 Mar 2008, 20:51
Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)

On Mar 11, 4:44 pm, Dave <n...@home . com > wrote:
> On Sun, 09 Mar 2008 21:32:28 -0700, Mark N
>
> <menusb...@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote:
> >Then today came the very exciting MotoGP opener, although pretty strung
> >out in the end. Aside from the Yamaha/Michelin front row that got all
> >the press and a race with no readily apparent tire advantage, most
> >telling was that top four - Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Dovizioso. In
> >case you hadn't noticed, that's a combined 218kg, or 480lbs, of rider
> >weight, or an average of 55kg / 120lbs per rider. Now given that the
> >lightest champion in GP premier class history was Stoner, the heaviest
> >of this group, one has to recognize a massive change in GP. Going
> >entirely unreported by the press, of course.
>
> I don't think you can credibly limit your observation to just those
> four riders. That's just convenient manipulation of facts. You need
> to expand that view to the top six, at least, as Rossi and Toseland
> were right there all the way to the stripe and Dovi only took fourth
> on the last lap. I could even make a weak case that you should
> include Colin since he was much more involved with the group in front
> than the one behind, but I'll concede that he was just out of touch
> for a large part of the race.
>
> The announcers did mention that Toseland dropped 15 pounds of muscle
> because "that's the way it is in MotoGP". Mind you, not 15 pounds of
> fat, and not 15 pounds of just getting in better shape (because James
> is supremely fit by all accounts), but actually losing 15 pounds of
> solid muscle just to be more competitive.
>
>
>
> >With Toseland a very competitive 6th, there were also three rookies in
> >the top six. Now does this mean we have an extraordinary crop of rookies
> >this year? No, of course not - Lorenzo couldn't ever beat both Pedrosa
> >and Stoner before they left the 250 class, Dovizioso was no Pedrosa on
> >the 250 Honda, and Toseland was hardly a blazing rocket in his seven
> >years in WSB. What it shows is what Qatar qualifying also showed, as did
> >Stoner's championship last year - these bikes are getting progressively
> >easier to ride fast, and exactly how fast depends on things largely
> >outside the rider's control - how well he matches up with the machine,
> >how good the machine is, how good the tires are. At Qatar it was the
> >Michelin qualifiers and not the Bridgestones that worked, the Hondas
> >didn't so much, so the Yamahas swept the front row. Almost doesn't
> >matter who the riders were.
>
> The oddity is, if the bikes are getting progressively easier to ride,
> why aren't all those mid-pack runners getting faster? Why aren't the
> guys that we know actually have talent and experience moving towards
> the front better than the rookies? I'm including guys like Melandri,
> Hayden, Vermeulen, Hopkins, and Edwards here. Guys who were near the
> front on a semi-regular basis before, who can't consistently get there
> on these "easier" bikes. I know there's a lot of factors at play and
> most of those guys have their unique reasons.
>
>
>
> >Fading to fifth was Rossi, on what appeared to be the best bike and what
> >are usually the best tires. Really kind of sad, after a fiery charge to
> >the lead early on that reminded one of the past and gave his fans real
> >hope. So was this a sign that he's really done, a shadow of his former
> >self? I don't think so, I think it's an indication of two things: one,
> >he never was quite as good as people seemed to think/hope, and two, when
> >you don't have the right stuff today in MotoGP, you're going to get
> >beaten, doesn't matter who you are. Today was a Michelin day, and he
> >chose the wrong side on that matter. That may not change much, as it
> >seems unlikely that Bridgestone will focus their development on him the
> >way Michelin used to, to the detriment of their other riders. And that
> >he was beaten in the final laps by a MotoGP rookie on a lease Honda (one
> >based on the '07 disaster) says an awful lot about where things stand in
> >GP today. Of course that he outweighs Lorenzo and Dovizioso by some
> >25-30 pounds doesn't help any - makes me think of those Vale the Giant
> >photos taken after the Valencia finale in '04, with 125 champ Andrea and
> >250 champ Dani. Still, to see Europe's Frankenstein monster, the first
> >manufactured champion, go down like that showed how far things have gone.
>
> Rossi's still a top rider, no doubt about that. However, I think his
> reactions to the past couple seasons have been very telling about him
> as a person and a rider. He wants to have the advantage. He expects
> it. He demands it. When he doesn't have it he can still win, but he
> certainly doesn't dominate. We're only one round down, though, and
> it's way too early to draw conclusions about this season for Rossi.
> Personally, if he does lose the championship, I hope it's the
> Bridgestones that does him in. I'd like to see him right there all
> season though.
>
> Interesting that the announcer actually called out that Michelin
> develops and provides different levels of tires for different riders,
> while Bridgestone has an equal access policy. Inferring, of course,
> that Rossi will have to live without the preferential treatment he was
> so accustomed to. I'm generally not in favor of spec tires for a
> series, but I would like to see more of the equal access policy
> applied by other vendors and other series.
>
> >So what about Stoner? Well, he still has that magic combination and it's
> >still working for him.
>
> He's still proof positive that it's more about the combination of
> factors coming together. Top team, top bike, top rider, and a
> rider/bike/tire style that all suit each other. I'd say Yosh Suzuki
> proves that just as well.
>
> One thing I noticed was that the Duc didn't have anywhere near the
> power advantage they had last year. Casey had a tough time passing
> down the straight even with a two bike draft, whereas last season he
> was blowing by them quite easily. That plus the patience he showed
> made the victory all the more impressive. I'm not so sure I'd dismiss
> his competition as easily as you did.
>
> >No, the real heroes this weekend were Toseland
>
> Agreed.
>
> >And Mladin
>
> Ditto.
>
> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
> little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
> unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
> entirely healthy.
>
> >Yet it feels like genuine racing is over anyway, being replaced by
> >income-producing "entertainment".
>
> I wouldn't go that far...yet. The new AMA situation does concern me
> greatly.

wow, good points. I lurk here a lot and some people [cough] tend to
rant a little :)
Muscle does weigh (a bit); it's not the same but I saw a rock climber
saying she lost muscle mass because it was slowing her down.
The physics is all power-to-weight; but the thing I like the most
about your post is the reference to the team and the "top 5.08
centimetres". Just look at any sport, especially team sports.


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