Re: An era ends and another begins (spoiler)Dave wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
>
>> Then today came the very exciting MotoGP opener, although pretty strung
>> out in the end. Aside from the Yamaha/Michelin front row that got all
>> the press and a race with no readily apparent tire advantage, most
>> telling was that top four - Stoner, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Dovizioso. In
>> case you hadn't noticed, that's a combined 218kg, or 480lbs, of rider
>> weight, or an average of 55kg / 120lbs per rider. Now given that the
>> lightest champion in GP premier class history was Stoner, the heaviest
>> of this group, one has to recognize a massive change in GP. Going
>> entirely unreported by the press, of course.
>
> I don't think you can credibly limit your observation to just those
> four riders. That's just convenient manipulation of facts. You need
> to expand that view to the top six, at least, as Rossi and Toseland
> were right there all the way to the stripe and Dovi only took fourth
> on the last lap. I could even make a weak case that you should
> include Colin since he was much more involved with the group in front
> than the one behind, but I'll concede that he was just out of touch
> for a large part of the race.
I'm not claiming this single instance as irrefutable proof that
size/weight is the determining factor in GP racing today or anything
like that. But I think if you looked through the entire history of the
premier class you would not find a single race where the top four
finishers weighed less than those guys do. Throw in the lightest
champion ever last year and the lightest average weight for all race
winners and there's no question that a big change is happening. Hell, go
back a few years and you wouldn't even be able to find four riders
anywhere on the grid who weighed as little as these guys do. Actually,
you don't even have to do that, since Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Dovizioso are
the lightest riders in the class, and the lightest that I can recall
ever being in the class.
Looking at the top seven, is it total coincidence that the three
heaviest riders finished behind the four lightest? Between Vale and Dovi
you had a difference of 0.017 second over a race of 2570 seconds - did
Dovi's 30-pound package weight advantage factor in that, make the
difference that was so small? I think it's foolish to simply claim it
didn't.
> The announcers did mention that Toseland dropped 15 pounds of muscle
> because "that's the way it is in MotoGP". Mind you, not 15 pounds of
> fat, and not 15 pounds of just getting in better shape (because James
> is supremely fit by all accounts), but actually losing 15 pounds of
> solid muscle just to be more competitive.
Right, and we hear the occasional remark of this kind, but it remains a
subject that seems to be taboo for anyone to talk about openly. The
closest I have ever seen was that comment by a senior HRC guy a few
years ago about the "compact riders of the future".
>> With Toseland a very competitive 6th, there were also three rookies in
>> the top six. Now does this mean we have an extraordinary crop of rookies
>> this year? No, of course not - Lorenzo couldn't ever beat both Pedrosa
>> and Stoner before they left the 250 class, Dovizioso was no Pedrosa on
>> the 250 Honda, and Toseland was hardly a blazing rocket in his seven
>> years in WSB. What it shows is what Qatar qualifying also showed, as did
>> Stoner's championship last year - these bikes are getting progressively
>> easier to ride fast, and exactly how fast depends on things largely
>> outside the rider's control - how well he matches up with the machine,
>> how good the machine is, how good the tires are. At Qatar it was the
>> Michelin qualifiers and not the Bridgestones that worked, the Hondas
>> didn't so much, so the Yamahas swept the front row. Almost doesn't
>> matter who the riders were.
>
> The oddity is, if the bikes are getting progressively easier to ride,
> why aren't all those mid-pack runners getting faster? Why aren't the
> guys that we know actually have talent and experience moving towards
> the front better than the rookies? I'm including guys like Melandri,
> Hayden, Vermeulen, Hopkins, and Edwards here. Guys who were near the
> front on a semi-regular basis before, who can't consistently get there
> on these "easier" bikes. I know there's a lot of factors at play and
> most of those guys have their unique reasons.
What I was saying is that it's much easier to get 98% of what a bike has
out of it today than ever before, but then guys hit a wall. For anyone
on a Suzuki or Kawasaki that wall came earlier and still does - they
have never won a dry race in MotoGP. Lease bike riders, particularly on
2nd-level Michelins, might be closer but still don't get there much at
all. Guys who have the good factory team bikes designed to suit them, or
happen to luck into that, are the ones who can win, and I doubt that
there were all that many people who didn't pick Stoner, Rossi and
Pedrosa as the likely top three in the championship this year. Melandri
can't seem to ride in the manner that it takes to get the full measure
of the Ducati, but I think there are very few people who think it's
really not a very good bike and it's just Stoner's superiority that is
making it a winner. Hayden gets stuck racing bikes that are largely
designed for a guy who is six inches shorter, nearly 40 pounds lighter,
and came up racing 125s - is that likely to work for him in an era where
bikes are honed to a knife's edge? What might he be doing in Stoner's
situation?
I think it was interesting that Edwards said the race would come down to
Stoner and Lorenzo after qualifying, and he was exactly right. Stoner
had the race pace - Losail is one of his best tracks never mind the
tirees - and Lorenzo had a factory Yamaha on a track where they worked
so very well as well as the Michelins. Essentially Colin was conceding
to the Rat just based on the difference in the motors and top speed, and
that in his very first race.
>> Fading to fifth was Rossi, on what appeared to be the best bike and what
>> are usually the best tires. Really kind of sad, after a fiery charge to
>> the lead early on that reminded one of the past and gave his fans real
>> hope. So was this a sign that he's really done, a shadow of his former
>> self? I don't think so, I think it's an indication of two things: one,
>> he never was quite as good as people seemed to think/hope, and two, when
>> you don't have the right stuff today in MotoGP, you're going to get
>> beaten, doesn't matter who you are. Today was a Michelin day, and he
>> chose the wrong side on that matter. That may not change much, as it
>> seems unlikely that Bridgestone will focus their development on him the
>> way Michelin used to, to the detriment of their other riders. And that
>> he was beaten in the final laps by a MotoGP rookie on a lease Honda (one
>> based on the '07 disaster) says an awful lot about where things stand in
>> GP today. Of course that he outweighs Lorenzo and Dovizioso by some
>> 25-30 pounds doesn't help any - makes me think of those Vale the Giant
>> photos taken after the Valencia finale in '04, with 125 champ Andrea and
>> 250 champ Dani. Still, to see Europe's Frankenstein monster, the first
>> manufactured champion, go down like that showed how far things have gone.
>
> Rossi's still a top rider, no doubt about that. However, I think his
> reactions to the past couple seasons have been very telling about him
> as a person and a rider. He wants to have the advantage. He expects
> it. He demands it. When he doesn't have it he can still win, but he
> certainly doesn't dominate. We're only one round down, though, and
> it's way too early to draw conclusions about this season for Rossi.
> Personally, if he does lose the championship, I hope it's the
> Bridgestones that does him in. I'd like to see him right there all
> season though.
I definitely agree on Rossi, and I don't buy that he's slipped any, it's
just that the situation isn't as tailor-made for him as it used to be. I
do think he's going to be in it all the way, in part because I think the
Yamahas are really pretty good at this point (all four in the top seven
yesterday) and in part because I think the Bridgestones will still work
out to be marginally better. For him perhaps not so much, because they
won't focus their development on him to the degree that Michelin did.
But he's still as good as anyone out there and remains the focus of the
Yamaha effort. His mystique certainly is gone, though. And I do think
his size works against him today, surrounded by midgets.
> Interesting that the announcer actually called out that Michelin
> develops and provides different levels of tires for different riders,
> while Bridgestone has an equal access policy. Inferring, of course,
> that Rossi will have to live without the preferential treatment he was
> so accustomed to. I'm generally not in favor of spec tires for a
> series, but I would like to see more of the equal access policy
> applied by other vendors and other series.
I still think one of the biggest determining factors in who won and who
didn't over the last 15 years or so has been the Michelin secret pecking
order, and Rossi certainly benefited from that. Bridgestone has been
supplying the two factory team riders for Ducati, Suzuki and Kawasaki
over the last several years (plus Tamada for a while), and they have to
have been thankful for that, it's tough to get a toehold in GP. Nice to
see that loyalty and that even-handedness, and I hope it continues.
>> So what about Stoner? Well, he still has that magic combination and it's
>> still working for him.
>
> He's still proof positive that it's more about the combination of
> factors coming together. Top team, top bike, top rider, and a
> rider/bike/tire style that all suit each other. I'd say Yosh Suzuki
> proves that just as well.
Yes, although I think Yosh is a bit more of a case of consistent
commitment, hard work and experience as a team. It's probably hard to
overestimate how much Mladin has had to do with their overall success,
and that probably extends even to WSB and BSB. The guy is driven, and a
decade of that has to have an impact.
> One thing I noticed was that the Duc didn't have anywhere near the
> power advantage they had last year. Casey had a tough time passing
> down the straight even with a two bike draft, whereas last season he
> was blowing by them quite easily. That plus the patience he showed
> made the victory all the more impressive. I'm not so sure I'd dismiss
> his competition as easily as you did.
I really don't dismiss him at all, I think he's very, very good, but
that machine and those tires have a lot to do with all that success. He
must have learned an awful lot last year, and his confidence must be
sky-high as a result of his success. That feeds on itself, as we've seen
repeatedly. He's just a great fit for that bike, and I suspect part of
that is his dirttrack background. Melandri, a typical 125/250-bred Euro,
can't deal with that part of it as well as total faith in the
electronics (and he struggled on Bridgestones last year, so that also
may be an issue), so he's even struggling to get to that 98% level,
while Casey blows by that and is always bumping up against its 100% rev
limiter.
But would it be the same deal if he was on any other machine? That's
where I still have some doubts, I really question whether or not he'd be
winning so much on a Yamaha next to Rossi or a factory Honda next to
Pedrosa. It seems like he's had the amazing luck to fall into his
perfect scenario.
>> No, the real heroes this weekend were Toseland
>
> Agreed.
>
>> And Mladin
>
> Ditto.
>
> Although, am I the only one who thinks Mladin looks like he's gone a
> little overboard on the fitness regime? His face looks too
> unnaturally hollow. Dropping your body fat to too low a level is not
> entirely healthy.
Yeah, I noticed that also. Maybe he's got a MotoGP wildcard ride lined
up as well? ;)
>> Yet it feels like genuine racing is over anyway, being replaced by
>> income-producing "entertainment".
>
> I wouldn't go that far...yet. The new AMA situation does concern me
> greatly.
Wait and see, but it all feels somehow different to me now. Not a major
shift all at once, but sort of crossing a line with no return. The size
thing in GP, the Nascar takeover, the electronics issues, the spec tire
stuff, none of it seems terribly encouraging.