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Post Subject:

Jerez - first day of practise

Reply from: Champ
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 16:56
Jerez - first day of practise

The suprises of Qatar continue - 3 Yamahas fastest, only Stoner able
to get anything out of the Ducati, rookies showing well throughout.

Lorenzo's looking good so far - his fastest lap was certainly not a
flash in the pan, and he looks like he can run 1:40s comfortably (12
in total). Rossi may be able to do the same, but only produced three
laps in the 1:40s. Edwards is practising well as usual, but I'm still
waiting (after how many years?) for him to race at the same pace.

The two works Hondas are looking similar to each other, their
'comfortable' speed in the 1:41s. Stoner had a crash in the
afternoon, and went no faster than the morning. He may well find
something extra tomorrow, but he only finished 5th at Jerez last year,
so maybe it's just not the circuit for him and the Ducati package.
Toseland also slid off in the afternoon; he's still improving, but 8th
is perhaps a bit closer to his expected pace than his showing in
practice at Qatar.

I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
shortly :-)
--
Champ
neal at champ dot org dot uk

Reply from: Mark N
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 20:00
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Champ wrote:
> The suprises of Qatar continue - 3 Yamahas fastest, only Stoner able
> to get anything out of the Ducati, rookies showing well throughout.
>
> Lorenzo's looking good so far - his fastest lap was certainly not a
> flash in the pan, and he looks like he can run 1:40s comfortably (12
> in total).  Rossi may be able to do the same, but only produced three
> laps in the 1:40s.  Edwards is practising well as usual, but I'm still
> waiting (after how many years?) for him to race at the same pace.
>
> The two works Hondas are looking similar to each other, their
> 'comfortable' speed in the 1:41s.  Stoner had a crash in the
> afternoon, and went no faster than the morning.  He may well find
> something extra tomorrow, but he only finished 5th at Jerez last year,
> so maybe it's just not the circuit for him and the Ducati package.
> Toseland also slid off in the afternoon; he's still improving, but 8th
> is perhaps a bit closer to his expected pace than his showing in
> practice at Qatar.

Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
again. The Yamahas continue to performe well, and the factory bikes
better than the lease bikes, with Toseland probably a bit off since
he's never raced here before (although he has tested here, which is
why he's at least in the game). Lorenzo's steady mid-40s definitely
has him a leg up on the occasional high 40s of Rossi, Edwards, Hayden,
Pedrosa and Stoner - Dovizioso's 40.91 was the only other one today.
So what it looks like again is Michelin over Bridgestone, Yamaha over
Honda, factory team bikes better than lease bikes, but with Stoner a
bit slower than last time. What that means is it's a reasonable shot
that Lorenzo will get pole again and even the race win.

I don't find it all that fascinating that the other Ducatis are
slower, I really wouldn't expect anything at all from the D'Antin boys
on a Michelin track - I don't think that much of the riders and Ducati
doesn't usually support lease teams as much as Honda or Yamaha (they
only did last year because they had to with the switch to 800s).
Melandri's ongoing struggles are a very interesting case, but at this
point hardly news. I find it more interesting that Kawasaki is
struggling so much, I wouldn't have predicted that - Hopkins 14th in
the 2nd session and West 17th. Seems like something is wrong with that
bike, although things will definitely improve when the get to a
Bridgestone track - if those are even out there now...

> I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
> shortly :-)

Right, like I'd even bother at this point...

Reply from: Champ
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 20:17
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On Fri, 28 Mar 2008 12:00:22 -0700 (PDT), Mark N
<menusbaum@earthlink . net > wrote:

>Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
>which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
>again.

Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
be doing the same here.

>The Yamahas continue to performe well, and the factory bikes
>better than the lease bikes, with Toseland probably a bit off since
>he's never raced here before (although he has tested here, which is
>why he's at least in the game).

Also, caught a bit of the Eurosport coverage when I just got in from
work, and apparently Toseland has a case of 'man-flu'. Dunno how
serious, but obviously the Brit commentators were talking it up.

>Lorenzo's steady mid-40s definitely
>has him a leg up on the occasional high 40s of Rossi, Edwards, Hayden,
>Pedrosa and Stoner - Dovizioso's 40.91 was the only other one today.
>So what it looks like again is Michelin over Bridgestone, Yamaha over
>Honda, factory team bikes better than lease bikes, but with Stoner a
>bit slower than last time. What that means is it's a reasonable shot
>that Lorenzo will get pole again and even the race win.

Well, tomorrow's a whole new day, but Lorenzo was the guy who really
found something between morning and afternoon - most in the top ten
found around half a second, but Lorenzo found a whole second.

>I find it more interesting that Kawasaki is
>struggling so much, I wouldn't have predicted that - Hopkins 14th in
>the 2nd session and West 17th. Seems like something is wrong with that
>bike, although things will definitely improve when the get to a
>Bridgestone track - if those are even out there now...

I agree, and as a fan of all things green I'm a little disappointed.
The TV showed a lap of West, and the bike was moving around a *lot*,
so the TC looks less than optimum. Mind you, shots of Pedrosa all
showed the rear of that bike snapping out too. It may be that as TC
systems get more sophisticated, they'll allow much the tyres to spin a
bit more than we've previously seen.

>> I guess Mark will be along with standard deviation and moving averages
>> shortly :-)
>
>Right, like I'd even bother at this point...

Hey, c'mon, indulge me :-)
--
Champ

Reply from: Mark N
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 21:28
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Champ wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
> >Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
> >which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
> >again.
>
> Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
> who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
> be doing the same here.

Maybe just a matter of semantics, but my guess is that it's more like
Rossi-Yamaha and Stoner-Ducati are easily the best rider-bike
combinations on Bridgestones right now. Meaning the tires aren't
necessarily working for them, rather they are at least able to run
very close to the front even when they don't work as well as the
Michelins. If Lorenzo is faster than Rossi you almost have to put it
down to tires (unless you accept that it's rider weight!). As you work
down the Bridgestone order you run into questionmarks - for Hopkins
and Vermeulen it's their bikes, for D'Antin and Gresini it's their
riders, then there's Melandri, and for the rest it's both. But when
you see someone like Dovizioso faster than all the Bridgestones but
Rossi and Stoner, and the latter only .03 second quicker, you have to
say there's a huge tire factor at play.

Reply from: Champ
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 22:19
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On Fri, 28 Mar 2008 13:28:31 -0700 (PDT), Mark N
<menusbaum@earthlink . net > wrote:

> Champ wrote:
>> Mark N wrote:
>> >Can't even talk about what's going on without mentioning tires (but
>> >which you managed to do anyway, btw) - clearly a Michelin weekend
>> >again.
>>
>> Much like Qatar - I have a theory that it was only Stoner and Rossi
>> who could make the Bridgestones work at that track, and they seem to
>> be doing the same here.
>
>Maybe just a matter of semantics, but my guess is that it's more like
>Rossi-Yamaha and Stoner-Ducati are easily the best rider-bike
>combinations on Bridgestones right now.

Sure, that's what I meant to say, but didn't make it as clear.

>Meaning the tires aren't
>necessarily working for them, rather they are at least able to run
>very close to the front even when they don't work as well as the
>Michelins. If Lorenzo is faster than Rossi you almost have to put it
>down to tires (unless you accept that it's rider weight!). As you work
>down the Bridgestone order you run into questionmarks - for Hopkins
>and Vermeulen it's their bikes, for D'Antin and Gresini it's their
>riders, then there's Melandri, and for the rest it's both. But when
>you see someone like Dovizioso faster than all the Bridgestones but
>Rossi and Stoner, and the latter only .03 second quicker, you have to
>say there's a huge tire factor at play.

No argument from me.

Rossi might be kicking himself - if he and Burgess have done the same
analysis, they know they'd be running better on Michelins right now.
But then again, if Rossi thinks he just has to beat Stoner for the
title (which is probably true, with perhaps Pedrosa too), then
eliminating any tyre difference is one less thing to worry about.

--
Champ

Reply from: Mark N
Date: 30 Mar 2008, 05:02
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Champ wrote:

> Rossi might be kicking himself - if he and Burgess have done the same
> analysis, they know they'd be running better on Michelins right now.
> But then again, if Rossi thinks he just has to beat Stoner for the
> title (which is probably true, with perhaps Pedrosa too), then
> eliminating any tyre difference is one less thing to worry about.

I think you have a very good point there, Champ, that Rossi may have
felt he only needed to level the playing field with Stoner regarding
tires and that not much else would matter that much. He may well have
felt Michelin was likely to come back, but that wouldn't matter. In that
case, he either felt Pedrosa/Honda wasn't that much of a challenge, or
that Michelin wouldn't actually end up with an edge.

One can dismiss Qatar because of the night thing, but Jerez is a
different deal. Last year Michelin swept the podium, and this is how my
usual pre-race analysis went:

The same close stuff we've been seeing, less than a second separating
the top 15. On race tires more of the same, and here are the fast race
tire laps in the Q as I can best determine:

[riders in qualifying order]
Pedrosa 1:40.899
Rossi 1:41.033
Checa 1:40.945
Edwards 1:41.198
Stoner 1:40.903
Hopkins 1:41.182
Nakano 1:41.516
Elias 1:41.428
Melandri 1:41.138
Roberts 1:41.694
Hayden 1:41.221
de Puniet 1:41.660
Barros 1:41.212
Vermeulen 1:41.311
Capirossi 1:41.231

Those were the only 1:40 laps, and most of the guys did their best race
tire laps very early, although the guys lower down on this list did more
top laps late. Probably the fast guys had a good setup, confirmed it,
and then tried a few things that didn't work. Notable here are the slow
race tire laps by guys like Nakano, Elias, de Puniet, who haven't
generally been competitive on race tires, and probably won't factor at
all tomorrow. And Barros and Vermeulen ended the race tire phase of the
session very strongly, but are on the 5th row.

So we see only .8 second covering the top 15 race tire laps. But it
looks like Pedrosa to me at this point, racing at home at a track where
he finished 2nd last year and has been fast all weekend. Stoner perhaps
looks like the top threat, but his race tire pace in the session was
really about 1:41.5. Rossi finished his first run with three very low
1:41s and looks like he may be able to do the sub-41.5s in the race that
it will take for a win.


Times are so close here that it's hard to tell much, and there's no
obvious difference from this year regarding the Bridgestone-Michelin
balance. Last year Rossi managed to win the race over Pedrosa, which he
probably won't do tomorrow, but he seems as likely as last year to beat
Stoner, I think, who finished 5th last year. So as long as he manages
that, he may view it as mission accomplished. Next up is Estoril, which
had the same result as Jerez at the very front last year, although
Stoner got third. So it may take a while before we really know how the
tire balance is playing out.

Reply from: Julian Bond
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 21:35
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Champ <news@champ.org.uk> Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:56:11
>The suprises of Qatar continue - 3 Yamahas fastest, only Stoner able
>to get anything out of the Ducati, rookies showing well throughout.
>
>Lorenzo's looking good so far - his fastest lap was certainly not a
>flash in the pan, and he looks like he can run 1:40s comfortably (12
>in total). Rossi may be able to do the same, but only produced three
>laps in the 1:40s. Edwards is practising well as usual, but I'm still
>waiting (after how many years?) for him to race at the same pace.

Well last year he was fast on Monday. If he continues to go fast on
Saturday this year, that's an improvement isn't it? ;)

>Stoner had a crash in the
>afternoon, and went no faster than the morning.

Folded the front on corner entry. Trying too hard to make up time on the
brakes?

The track looked really bumpy this year and all the bikes look really
loose with the riders working hard. I'm not sure if it's on the MotoGP
site, but there should be a shot of Stoner with full lock on, on the
power, back wheel on the kerb. Round about 3 minutes to go.

I think the grid's going to be very close and probably the race too.
Hard to bet against Rossi in that environment. And Lorenzo v Pedrosa
could well be fun if circumstances force them together. The TV is really
deceptive. It looks like the tracks really wide with loads of room, when
in fact it's a narrow ribbon apart from the back straight.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar . com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: * w w w .ecademy . com / T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: * w w w .voidstar . com / skype:julian.bond?chat
Multigrain For A Unique Taste

Reply from: Champ
Date: 28 Mar 2008, 22:21
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On Fri, 28 Mar 2008 20:35:58 GMT, Julian Bond
<julian_bond@voidstar . com > wrote:

>>Stoner had a crash in the
>>afternoon, and went no faster than the morning.
>
>Folded the front on corner entry.

As did Toseland:
* w w w .motorcyclenews . com /upload/208864/images/James%20Toseland%20crash.jpg

>The track looked really bumpy this year and all the bikes look really
>loose with the riders working hard.

Agreed - as I said elsewhere, even Pedrosa had the rear tyre snapping
sideways.
--
Champ

Reply from: Julian Bond
Date: 29 Mar 2008, 09:26
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Champ <neal@champ.org.uk> Fri, 28 Mar 2008 21:21:37
>Agreed - as I said elsewhere, even Pedrosa had the rear tyre snapping
>sideways.

I wondered if that was all about traction control fine tuning. One more
thing the teams have to cope with in the 4 hours of practice.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar . com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: * w w w .ecademy . com / T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: * w w w .voidstar . com / skype:julian.bond?chat
Multigrain For A Unique Taste

Reply from: pablo
Date: 29 Mar 2008, 20:16
Re: Jerez - first day of practise


Did any of you see Edwards' save? Held the bike up on with knee and
elbow. Amazing.

As to the race - I am not surprised that Lorenzo can pull very fast
ones. The question is can he keep it going for an enitre race... he is
known to have been a hothead at times, and with the bad blood flowing
between him and Pedrosa something ugly is bound to happen eventually.

Looks like Honda has made some serious progress in very little time,
so it will be interesting to see whether that is a fluke or here to
stay. In that case watch out for Hayden and Pedrosa this season. Honda
will throw the kitchensink at this, and if the Michelins go back to
providing a scant advantage it will be enough for these guys to
eventually be ahead.

It will also be interesting to see whether Stoner is going for old
Rossi tactics - underwhelming qual, then still be ahead come race
day.

As to Rossi, Lorenzo (a notorious a*hole as son as you hold a mike to
him) has publicly questioned whether Rossi is still hungry. He bluntly
stated he thinks he is far hungrier for success than Rossi, and that
that pushes him even though he thinks Rossi is still the best rider
out there in 2008.

Predictions for tomorrow? Still hard to bet against Stoner on the
podium, thus I'll go for a risky Lorenzo win prediction, Stoner
second, Pedrosa third?

...p

Reply from: Dr Ivan D. Reid
Date: 29 Mar 2008, 22:02
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On Sat, 29 Mar 2008 12:16:29 -0700 (PDT), pablo <pablo@simplyhombre . net >
wrote in <bf0ba6b2-e384-4e6f-93d0-82b2f3745e11@s12g2000prg.googlegroups . com >:

> Did any of you see Edwards' save? Held the bike up on with knee and
> elbow. Amazing.

* w w w .youtube . com /watch?v=K1UlEQtdUGc

--
Ivan Reid, School of Engineering & Design, _____________ CMS Collaboration,
Brunel University. Ivan.Reid@[brunel.ac.uk|cern.ch] Room 40-1-B12, CERN
GSX600F, RG250WD "You Porsche. Me pass!" DoD #484 JKLO#003, 005
WP7# 3000 LC Unit #2368 (tinlc) UKMC#00009 BOTAFOT#16 UKRMMA#7 (Hon)
KotPT -- "for stupidity above and beyond the call of duty".

Reply from: Mick
Date: 30 Mar 2008, 00:33
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

Dr Ivan D. Reid wrote:
> On Sat, 29 Mar 2008 12:16:29 -0700 (PDT), pablo <pablo@simplyhombre . net >
> wrote in <bf0ba6b2-e384-4e6f-93d0-82b2f3745e11@s12g2000prg.googlegroups . com >:
>
>> Did any of you see Edwards' save? Held the bike up on with knee and
>> elbow. Amazing.
>
> * w w w .youtube . com /watch?v=K1UlEQtdUGc

Obviously he's been to the Randy Mamola School of Saves.

Mick
--
Mick aka MotoMania
motomick at sbcgobal dot net

"Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving
safely in a pretty and well preserved body -- but rather to skid in
broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming
-- WOW, WHAT A RIDE!!" - Author : Unknown

Reply from: T3
Date: 30 Mar 2008, 03:54
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On 2008-03-29 17:02:25 -0400, "Dr Ivan D. Reid" <Ivan.Reid@brunel.ac.uk> said:

> On Sat, 29 Mar 2008 12:16:29 -0700 (PDT), pablo <pablo@simplyhombre . net >
> wrote in <bf0ba6b2-e384-4e6f-93d0-82b2f3745e11@s12g2000prg.googlegroups . com >:
>
>> Did any of you see Edwards' save? Held the bike up on with knee and
>> elbow. Amazing.
>
> * w w w .youtube . com /watch?v=K1UlEQtdUGc
>

About as textbook a save as you'll ever see...


Reply from: T3
Date: 30 Mar 2008, 03:54
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

On 2008-03-29 15:16:29 -0400, pablo <pablo@simplyhombre . net > said:

>
>
> As to Rossi, Lorenzo (a notorious a*hole as son as you hold a mike to
> him) has publicly questioned whether Rossi is still hungry. He bluntly
> stated he thinks he is far hungrier for success than Rossi, and that
> that pushes him even though he thinks Rossi is still the best rider
> out there in 2008.

About time someone gave a head trip back to Vale, don't you think?
>
> Predictions for tomorrow? Still hard to bet against Stoner on the
> podium, thus I'll go for a risky Lorenzo win prediction, Stoner
> second, Pedrosa third?

Not that I would bet a penny on it, but I like Hayden, Rossi and Lorenzo...
>



Reply from: Julian Bond
Date: 30 Mar 2008, 09:32
Re: Jerez - first day of practise

pablo <pablo@simplyhombre . net > Sat, 29 Mar 2008 12:16:29
>Predictions for tomorrow? Still hard to bet against Stoner on the
>podium, thus I'll go for a risky Lorenzo win prediction, Stoner
>second, Pedrosa third?

Prediction:-

Pedrosa makes a lightning start to lead the first lap from Lorenzo.
Gorgeous George tries everything to get past with a series of feints all
round the track but can't make it stick. Meanwhile Rossi is working his
way up until he's 2 seconds behind them as the battle in front and small
mistakes slows them up. Stoner falls off after an ill-advised pass
attempt on Edwards that leaves the Texan going through the gravel and
dropping 5 places. On the last lap, at Gibernau corner, Lawrence makes a
final, out of control lunge and both Jorgay and Pedrobot end up in the
gravel. Rossi steals the win. The crowd goes wild, hurling fireworks,
bottles and even a giant blow up Chuppa-Chup at both the riders and
themselves. Fights break out all round the circuit between the two
tribes as the circuit disappears beneath the smoke, to the sound of
Kylie Minogue singing "I should be so lucky" over the PA[1]. Brilliant!

[1]We were camped on one of the hills last year for the test weekend
after sneaking into the circuit. Woke up on Saturday morning to thick
fog, severe Sherry hangovers and Kylie singing over the PA. Very
surreal.

--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar . com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: * w w w .ecademy . com / T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: * w w w .voidstar . com / skype:julian.bond?chat
Always Replace The Cap


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