Re: Jerez - first day of practiseChamp wrote:
> Rossi might be kicking himself - if he and Burgess have done the same
> analysis, they know they'd be running better on Michelins right now.
> But then again, if Rossi thinks he just has to beat Stoner for the
> title (which is probably true, with perhaps Pedrosa too), then
> eliminating any tyre difference is one less thing to worry about.
I think you have a very good point there, Champ, that Rossi may have
felt he only needed to level the playing field with Stoner regarding
tires and that not much else would matter that much. He may well have
felt Michelin was likely to come back, but that wouldn't matter. In that
case, he either felt Pedrosa/Honda wasn't that much of a challenge, or
that Michelin wouldn't actually end up with an edge.
One can dismiss Qatar because of the night thing, but Jerez is a
different deal. Last year Michelin swept the podium, and this is how my
usual pre-race analysis went:
The same close stuff we've been seeing, less than a second separating
the top 15. On race tires more of the same, and here are the fast race
tire laps in the Q as I can best determine:
[riders in qualifying order]
Pedrosa 1:40.899
Rossi 1:41.033
Checa 1:40.945
Edwards 1:41.198
Stoner 1:40.903
Hopkins 1:41.182
Nakano 1:41.516
Elias 1:41.428
Melandri 1:41.138
Roberts 1:41.694
Hayden 1:41.221
de Puniet 1:41.660
Barros 1:41.212
Vermeulen 1:41.311
Capirossi 1:41.231
Those were the only 1:40 laps, and most of the guys did their best race
tire laps very early, although the guys lower down on this list did more
top laps late. Probably the fast guys had a good setup, confirmed it,
and then tried a few things that didn't work. Notable here are the slow
race tire laps by guys like Nakano, Elias, de Puniet, who haven't
generally been competitive on race tires, and probably won't factor at
all tomorrow. And Barros and Vermeulen ended the race tire phase of the
session very strongly, but are on the 5th row.
So we see only .8 second covering the top 15 race tire laps. But it
looks like Pedrosa to me at this point, racing at home at a track where
he finished 2nd last year and has been fast all weekend. Stoner perhaps
looks like the top threat, but his race tire pace in the session was
really about 1:41.5. Rossi finished his first run with three very low
1:41s and looks like he may be able to do the sub-41.5s in the race that
it will take for a win.
Times are so close here that it's hard to tell much, and there's no
obvious difference from this year regarding the Bridgestone-Michelin
balance. Last year Rossi managed to win the race over Pedrosa, which he
probably won't do tomorrow, but he seems as likely as last year to beat
Stoner, I think, who finished 5th last year. So as long as he manages
that, he may view it as mission accomplished. Next up is Estoril, which
had the same result as Jerez at the very front last year, although
Stoner got third. So it may take a while before we really know how the
tire balance is playing out.