Jerez Q

Jerez Q

1. Jorge LORENZO (Yamaha), Michelin, 1:38.189
2. Dani PEDROSA (Honda), Michelin, 1:38.789
3. Colin EDWARDS (Yamaha), Michelin, 1:38.954
4. Nicky HAYDEN (Honda), Michelin, 1:39.061
5. Valentino ROSSI (Yamaha), Bridgestone, 1:39.064
6. Randy DE PUNIET (Honda), Michelin, 1:39.122
7. Casey STONER (Ducati), Bridgestone, 1:39.286
8. James TOSELAND (Yamaha), Michelin, 1:39.334
9. John HOPKINS (Kawasaki), Bridgestone, 1:39.439
10. Loris CAPIROSSI (Suzuki), Bridgestone, 1:39.484
11. Shinya NAKANO (Honda), Bridgestone, 1:39.559
12. Chris VERMEULEN (Suzuki), Bridgestone, 1:39.704
13. Andrea DOVIZIOSO (Honda), Michelin, 1:39.767
14. Alex DE ANGELIS (Honda), Bridgestone, 1:40.037
15. Anthony WEST (Kawasaki), Bridgestone, 1:40.088
16. Toni ELIAS (Ducati), Bridgestone, 1:40.286
17. Sylvain GUINTOLI (Ducati), Bridgestone, 1:40.939
18. Marco MELANDRI (Ducati), Bridgestone, 1:41.027

The Rat smoked 'em again, definitely the fast guy this weekend. But it
all looked like the Jockey Syndrome again, really all coming down to the
horses and not the guys on them. For Lorenzo it's all go, the M1 looking
like the best bike and the factory model better than the lease bikes,
Michelins the best again, and of course he wins on handicapping. The
Repsol Hondas look a bit better this weekend, which could just come down
to Pedrosa getting healthier and Hayden getting the new/good/Dani
chassis for his '08 RC this weekend. The Bridgestone fronts look
problematic, and it seems to take all they had to get Rossi on the 2nd
row and Stoner and Hopkins on the 3rd.

On pace, Lorenzo started with a 13-lap run consistently in the mid-low
40s (low of 40.30) then went to the Qs, looks like four trys, all in the
38s. Pedrosa did only three 40s (best 40.50) after leading in the
morning with a 40.34 and doing reasonably consistent runs into the
mid-high 40s. Edwards was similar, with a best at 40.40 in the morning.
Hayden did a 40.42 early in the am but then went the wrong direction,
and then never got out of the 41s in the Q.

Rossi got to a 40.60 on race tires in the Q after a 40.73 best in the
morning. But it looked like he really had to push to get there and
couldn't sustain it. De Puniet could do the odd high 40 but no
consistency; as usual, he won't factor. Stoner was much like Rossi,
getting down to a 40.69 in the am but mostly in the 41s and then only a
few race tire laps in the Q, topping out at 41.3. Toseland was about the
same in the Q session and was well off form in the morning, easily the
slowest Michelin.

Hopkins did one 41.1 in the Q but otherwise topped out at 41.5, and was
the same in the morning. Capirossi did a 40.46 early on in the Q and was
4th-fastest in the morning with a 40.42, so he has some speed; Vermeulen
topped out at about 40.8. Dovisioso really got screwed on the Qs after
doing a 40.11 on a race tire (sandwiched between two 41.5s). And
Melandri was utterly hopeless.

So it looks like Lorenzo, unless Pedrosa can hang with him somehow.
Should make the Andalucian fans happy. After that it should be Edwards
(maybe his weekend after that save early in the Q?), but there will be
the mix of Hayden, Rossi, Stoner and Dovisioso breathing down on him. I
doubt Hopkins and Capirossi can hang with this group, and I don't see
anyone else really factoring much, unless Toseland gets healthy or de
Puniet has a change of form. If I had to narrow down the last podium
spot, it would be almost a coin flip between Colin and Andrea, and that
depends a lot on Dovisioso's start.

The big question will be how bad the Bridgestones look in the race, and
it all feels a bit like just desserts right now, given how last year
went and how Rossi made his swap. What's very clear now is that the
nature of GP racing has changed in a fundamental way, although exactly
how that will look is still unclear. But each race weekend will be its
own story, based on how the tires and bikes work. Riders don't matter as
much, whether it's historical concepts like generally superior skill,
heroic performances or injuries. Doesn't necessarily make it less
interesting, just different, not so much an athletic contest as a chess
game, with the riders as much pieces as players...

Re: Jerez Q

I've normally agreed with your rider weight arguments, Mark, but given
that three of the top five and five of the top ten (Six out of ten?
How much does Randy DeP weigh?) are normal sized, I'd say the "weight
vs. skill" argument has yet to be put to rest. Other than the fact
that Lorenzo is 0.6 sec clear, I wouldn't find anything about that
grid that screams lighter is better. Edwards has had two out of two
front row starts this year and isn't he the heaviest rider of the
bunch? I'll be curious to see how the race pans out and if the
heavier riders suffer with tire wear compared to the lighter riders by
the end of the race.

-Dirt-

Re: Jerez Q

Dirt wrote:
> I've normally agreed with your rider weight arguments, Mark, but given
> that three of the top five and five of the top ten (Six out of ten?
> How much does Randy DeP weigh?) are normal sized, I'd say the "weight
> vs. skill" argument has yet to be put to rest. Other than the fact
> that Lorenzo is 0.6 sec clear, I wouldn't find anything about that
> grid that screams lighter is better. Edwards has had two out of two
> front row starts this year and isn't he the heaviest rider of the
> bunch? I'll be curious to see how the race pans out and if the
> heavier riders suffer with tire wear compared to the lighter riders by
> the end of the race.

I think you're right that it's all very much up in the air, but I do
think the weight thing is being felt in a material and undeniable way in
MotoGP today. If you look back 10, 15, 20 years, would these guys have
been able to be this competitive on those 500s? Would they even have
shown up in 500, given that the 125-250-500 progression didn't exist
then? Part of my argument has been that this system of internal
promotion of fairly recent (and intentional) development has resulted in
the guys who have a material advantage due to size in the smaller
classes then almost automatically promoted into the premier class. In
the past that may have been a disaster, but with today's machines it
isn't, and once there they start to shape the machines in a way that
makes it even easier for the next group of little fellas - and therefore
tougher for the bigger guys who by definition now don't come from inside
GP and so have a much tougher time anyway.

You can never tell too much from individual races, and the thing that we
will never know is if these little guys really are as talented as the
bigger guys they are racing with, or if a notable part of their talent
is their size. You mention tire wear, and you can't even tell that, if
lighter guys are able to use softer compounds (as has been said
repeatedly regarding Pedrosa and Hayden). What is hard to argue is that
these bikes are much more easy to jump on and go than the GP premier
class machines of the past, and we see rookies adapting very quickly
now, the first race having three in the top six. It seems likely that
easier in this sense also means the bikes aren't so demanding
physically, that little guys used to handling a 200-pound 250 have
really no trouble with a 340-pound MotoGP bike that makes twice the
horsepower or more. That inevitably leads to the conclusion that these
guys will have an advantage with their lighter weight and perhaps even
smaller size.

I wrote an email on this to Cycle News last week, just to see what the
reaction might be, that got published in this week's mag and editor Paul
Carruthers' response was, of course weight matters, weight equals
horsepower, and these guys are always trying to be as light as possible.
I thought it was kind of a weak response because he seemed to view it as
individual guys losing weight and not the MotoGP reality, which is
bigger guys leaving and being replaced by much smaller guys. I think he
also made some questionable statements, like Ben Bostrom losing weight
because he was switching from the bigger, more powerful 1000s to 600s (I
think it's more that the guys he raced in SStock like Spies and Yates
were his size or bigger, while now his primary competition is tiny
teammate Herrin, who is listed as the same size as Capirossi). But even
in denying the "conspiracy theory" aspect of the thing and refused to
recognize that something new was happening, he conceded that weight
really matters.

Anyway, I wasn't saying weight was showing up unusually in the way
things were going at Jerez. But now through two races this year the
average winner weighs 120 pounds and the average guy on the podium
weighs 124 pounds - does this look like the big guys are winning to you?
Just two races, of course.

Btw, de Puniet weighs 139 pounds, a 'tweener in MotoGP terms, a
heavyweight in 250 terms, but a little fucker in the rest of the world.

Re: Jerez Q

On Mar 30, 3:29 pm, Mark N <menusb...@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote:
>
> Dirt wrote:
>
> > I've normally agreed with your rider weight arguments, Mark, but given
> > that three of the top five and five of the top ten (Six out of ten?
> > How much does Randy DeP weigh?) are normal sized, I'd say the "weight
> > vs. skill" argument has yet to be put to rest. Other than the fact
> > that Lorenzo is 0.6 sec clear, I wouldn't find anything about that
> > grid that screams lighter is better. Edwards has had two out of two
> > front row starts this year and isn't he the heaviest rider of the
> > bunch? I'll be curious to see how the race pans out and if the
> > heavier riders suffer with tire wear compared to the lighter riders by
> > the end of the race.
>
> I think you're right that it's all very much up in the air, but I do
> think the weight thing is being felt in a material and undeniable way in
> MotoGP today. ...

[snip]

Good points all. I won't argue that the trend is to smaller riders
and that this trend is due, in a large part, to the fact that the
electronics have made the bikes that much easier to control. Where I
remain unconvinced is that being larger inherently puts one at a
disadvantage. Were we debating auto racing there wouldn't be much of
a debate because weight equals increased lap times. On bikes,
however, the rider plays so much of a part in the overall dynamic that
I have to look past the obvious weight argument and consider what the
larger rider brings to play: added strength, extra length of limb and
added mobility on the motorcycle. Is it coincidence that two of the
largest riders on the grid also had two fairly spectacular front end
saves? Would Pedrosa or Stoner have been able to make it past those
front slides? Maybe not.

Overall I view this trend as opening the ranks to more competition.
The golden age may have been a demonstration of the very top 0.001% of
talent, but would Lawson or Rainey or Doohan really been also-rans had
they been competing today? I personally don't think so and remain of
the opinion that the cream will always rise to the top, even if it's
heavy cream.

-Dirt-

Re: Jerez Q

Dirt wrote:

> Good points all. I won't argue that the trend is to smaller riders
> and that this trend is due, in a large part, to the fact that the
> electronics have made the bikes that much easier to control. Where I
> remain unconvinced is that being larger inherently puts one at a
> disadvantage. Were we debating auto racing there wouldn't be much of
> a debate because weight equals increased lap times. On bikes,
> however, the rider plays so much of a part in the overall dynamic that
> I have to look past the obvious weight argument and consider what the
> larger rider brings to play: added strength, extra length of limb and
> added mobility on the motorcycle. Is it coincidence that two of the
> largest riders on the grid also had two fairly spectacular front end
> saves? Would Pedrosa or Stoner have been able to make it past those
> front slides? Maybe not.

But would they have gotten themselves into those situations, is it the
added size and weight, potentially harder compounds, and/or the need to
compete with the little guys that had Nick and Colin pushing the front
so hard? That particular argument is always there and cannot be settled,
I don't think. Casey certainly had front-end problems this weekend, but
his saves didn't need to be so dramatic, even if it had him out in the
gravel.

> Overall I view this trend as opening the ranks to more competition.
> The golden age may have been a demonstration of the very top 0.001% of
> talent, but would Lawson or Rainey or Doohan really been also-rans had
> they been competing today? I personally don't think so and remain of
> the opinion that the cream will always rise to the top, even if it's
> heavy cream.

The problem is, would guys like Lawson and Doohan have ever gotten the
chance in today's world? They both arrived in the pre-Dorna days when
factory teams were looking for guys who could win, and those guys were
only found in American and Australia. Since then we have examples like
Mladin, who doesn't appear to have been offered any chance since his one
year with Cagiva in '93, and Spies, who we still don't know will get his
shot, and if he does it will likely to be with a factory who has yet to
show they can win in MotoGP. I think it's kind of ironic that these guys
are dominating AMA SB to such a degree that people are all shouting
something needs to be done about it, but in an earlier era they'd both
likely be off in GP and there would be no "problem" here.

In the last four years the guys who have moved into MotoGP have been
Vermeulen and Toseland from WSB, and Elias, de Puniet, Stoner, Pedrosa,
Guintoli, West, de Angelis, Dovizioso and Lorenzo from 250. That's 82%
of the new blood from one class, one source, and that source simply
excludes anyone of any size today. None of those 250 guys weigh even 140
pounds, and all but de Puniet, West and Guintoli weigh under 130 pounds.
Vermeulen got a shot at riding in MotoGP while still in WSB, which
certainly accelerated his opportunity, and Toseland's with a sponsorless
team may well have been assisted by Dorna's desperate desire to have a
Brit in the series (having supported the likes of Ellison and Byrne with
budget-strapped teams in the past). If this pattern continues, how long
will it be before all the bigger guys are gone? Vermeulen rides for a
secondary factory, Toseland is on a lease bike, there was already talk
after Qatar that Hayden was done at Repsol, that after being forced to
squeeze onto the Dani bike last year as defending world champion,
Hopkins is also with a secondary factory, Edwards will be done after
this year, Rossi is almost year to year now, etc. But Lorenzo probably
had his deal done with the Yamaha factory in mid-2006, before he ever
won a 250 world championship, and de Angelis got a ride without ever
winning even a race in 250.

In any case, I am far from convinced that the cream will rise to the
top, when it's not even clear that it can get into the bottle...

Re: Jerez Q

On Mar 30, 7:01 pm, Mark N <menusb...@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote:
> Since then we have examples like
> Mladin, who doesn't appear to have been offered any chance since his one y=
ear with Cagiva in '93,

I have no doubts whatsoever that if Mladin had been prepared to take a
cut in wages and to go to a secondary team, he could have got a ride
in MotoGP.

How much did he want it?

Re: Jerez Q

RealMart <RedLegMedia@googlemail . com > Mon, 31 Mar 2008 01:26:42
>I have no doubts whatsoever that if Mladin had been prepared to take a
>cut in wages and to go to a secondary team, he could have got a ride
>in MotoGP.
>
>How much did he want it?

I guess he must have preferred being a very well paid big fish in a
small pond. ;^)

However, he went to GP the first time round too early and to an
under-performing team and barely lasted a season. That can make it hard
to impossible to ever get another chance. An awful lot of people have
found that over the years.

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Bottled At Source

Re: Jerez Q

Julian Bond wrote:
> RealMart
>> I have no doubts whatsoever that if Mladin had been prepared to take a
>> cut in wages and to go to a secondary team, he could have got a ride
>> in MotoGP.
>
>> How much did he want it?

Really? And why do you have no doubt? It seems to me that the secondary
lease teams became hugely JIS-focused, look at the guys being hired by
teams like Pons, D'Antin, Tech3, etc. Maybe WCM, but they seemed
WSB-focused until they rolled the dice on teenage Hopkins. The one real
opportunity for SB guys was 03-04, when Edwards, Bayliss, Hayden,
Tamada, Haga, Hodgson, Xaus, Byrne got in, but Mladin picked a bad time
to have his worst season in 2002. And Suzuki never showed much sign of
wanting him anywhere but in the AMA, no real discussion heard about
moving him to WSB let alone GP. And he did start signing some long-term
contracts at some point, which obviously would limit his options, but
that seemed to be once he was resigned to staying here. There's no doubt
he want to go, that's why he took the Ferracci ride in '97 (which was
supposed to parlay into a WSB ride with Ducati in '98), and he was
pretty open about this stuff when you talked to him in the paddock. I
really doubt he ever had anything that could be called a serious
opportunity.

> I guess he must have preferred being a very well paid big fish in a
> small pond. ;^)
>
> However, he went to GP the first time round too early and to an
> under-performing team and barely lasted a season. That can make it hard
> to impossible to ever get another chance. An awful lot of people have
> found that over the years.

Yes, and pretty much all of them from the English-speaking superbike
world - Duhamel, Mladin, Russell, Gobert, Corser, Crafar, Walker,
Hodgson, et al, none even lasting two full seasons. And yet guys like
Checa and Barros went on and on, and guys like Capirossi and Jacque got
another shot after leaving, and now we have guys like de Puniet and de
Angelis...

Re: Jerez Q

On 2008-03-31 06:08:08 -0400, Julian Bond <julian_bond@voidstar . com > said:

> RealMart <RedLegMedia@googlemail . com > Mon, 31 Mar 2008 01:26:42
>> I have no doubts whatsoever that if Mladin had been prepared to take a
>> cut in wages and to go to a secondary team, he could have got a ride
>> in MotoGP.
>>
>> How much did he want it?
>
> I guess he must have preferred being a very well paid big fish in a
> small pond. ;^)

Which has worked pretty damn good for both him and Suz, wouldn't you
say? In any event, I'd imagine those days will be pretty much history
fairly soon..

>
> However, he went to GP the first time round too early and to an
> under-performing team and barely lasted a season. That can make it hard
> to impossible to ever get another chance. An awful lot of people have
> found that over the years.

DuHamel would certainly agree...

Re: Jerez Q

On Mar 29, 8:41 pm, Mark N <menusb...@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote:

> So it looks like Lorenzo, unless Pedrosa can hang with him somehow.

> Should make the Andalucian fans happy. After that it should be Edwards
> (maybe his weekend after that save early in the Q?), but there will be
> the mix of Hayden, Rossi, Stoner and Dovisioso breathing down on him.

Can't argue with picking Lorenzo for the win - in the warm up this
morning he went out and did a longish run of 11 laps, all but the
first and last in the 1:40s. I doubt anyone else can go with that. I
think there's a reasonable chance that Rossi will be able to lead the
chasing pack - looking at the times, Edwards ought to be faster, but
he just never seems to race the way he practices - here's hoping.

Also, I think Stoner is going to be out of it. He was 5th here last
year, and I can't see him bettering that. The only person who seem to
be able to get anything out of the Bridgestones here is Rossi, with an
honourable mention to Capirossi.

The one note of caution for the works Yamaha boys is that both Lorenzo
and Rossi had engine problems yesterday - Lorenzo pulling in with a
smokey motor in the morning, and Rossi having to abort his last Q run
in the afternoon with 'engine problems'. Looks like that pneumatic
valve motor still needs a little work - I wonder how many engines they
take to a race weekend?

--
Champ (via google groups)