Re: MotoGP qualifying at JerezChamp wrote:
> Well, it's another episode of the Lorenzo show.
>
> 1 48 Jorge LORENZO 1'35.715
> 2 2 Dani PEDROSA 1'35.948
> 3 46 Valentino ROSSI 1'36.199
> 4 69 Nicky HAYDEN 1'36.266
> 5 5 Colin EDWARDS 1'36.289
> 6 52 James TOSELAND 1'36.790
> 7 4 Andrea DOVIZIOSO 1'36.998
> 8 14 Randy DE PUNIET 1'37.223
> 9 1 Casey STONER 1'37.253
> 10 21 John HOPKINS 1'37.346
> 11 56 Shinya NAKANO 1'37.664
> 12 65 Loris CAPIROSSI 1'37.786
> 13 7 Chris VERMEULEN 1'37.843
> 14 24 Toni ELIAS 1'38.561
> 15 13 Anthony WEST 1'38.775
> 16 15 Alex DE ANGELIS 1'38.823
> 17 33 Marco MELANDRI 1'39.115
> 18 50 Sylvain GUINTOLI 1'39.355
>
> Lorenzo seems to be able to work a qualifier tyre to its limit, and
> beyond - after his pole lap, he carried on at the same pace, setting
> times for the first 3 sectors that were only a 1/10th slower - the
> grip only disappeared in the last sector, but this time would still
> have put him 5th. As at the Q sessions for the previous two races,
> Lorenzo also did a couple of runs with 5~6 laps on race tyres at a
> pace faster than anyone (mid 1'37"). Rossi and Pedrosa look like they
> can probably match this pace (each with a couple of laps about the
> same), and they're both experienced enough to know that if they can
> run a lap time once, they don't need to repeat it 5 or 6 times. So
> the race will probably run in the mid 37 to low 38 range.
>
> After Rossi, Hayden flattered with his Q tyre, his best race tyre time
> being a second off. Edwards ran some 37s too, so may go with the
> front guys to start with, especially now he has the pneumatic valve
> motor like the works team (previously, his Q times have been
> unrepeatable in the race because the thirstier spring valve engine
> needed to be turned down a little to make the fuel last). Toseland
> continues to impress in 6th, but his race tyre time is 38s; ditto
> Dovizioso.
>
> The big upset is Stoner, a second off the front pace on race tyres,
> and 1.5 off on a Q tyre. And his bike looked evil, bucking
> everywhere. Only he and Rossi are on Bridgestones in the top 10, so
> this is definitely a Mich track, but Rossi seems to be making them
> work. The big question in my mind is where would Rossi be now if he
> was on Michelins?
>
> Lorenzo hasn't raced as well as he's practised, and may lack race
> distance fitness (he is the youngest on the grid!), so I think
> tomorrow will be between Rossi and Pedrosa.
>
> Over to you, Mark :-)
Looks a lot like the last two rounds to this point, the Yamahas the best
bikes, the factory models better than the lease team's, the factory
Hondas very close thanks to their Michelin tires, and the Bridgestones
down as far as they've been so far. What's interesting is how far Rossi
is ahead of Stoner, which makes one wonder what things will look like
once the series gets to a Bridgestone track (or, as you put it, if he
was on Michelins). Given how horribly Melandri and the D'Antin boys have
been doing, you have to wonder if Ducati has lost their edge to Yamaha,
even with the perfect (previously) match between Stoner and his bike.
Hopkins is now breathing down Casey's neck, and you have to believe both
that bike and rider will continue to improve in future races.
So the season math seems to circle around tires once again, and if it
turns out that Bridgestone still has the edge overall, then one has to
suspect that Rossi is going to win this thing. But if Michelin has the
edge, then you have to look very hard at Pedrosa and even Lorenzo. If
the tires end up essentially a draw, then perhaps the biggest issue will
be how fast and far Honda goes in the development of the Repsol bikes,
as in a straight machine fight I think the Rat has little chance against
the Midget. And then it may come down to the Dorna wet dream, Rossi vs.
Pedrosa. Too early to give up on Stoner, of course, but something has to
change in what we've seen the last two rounds for him to be there.
Hayden has very little chance, because he's definitely the #2, not the
development focus and getting parts after Pedrosa. Plus the weight thing
- Hopkins in the only factory team guy to out-qualify a lighter
teammate, the still-lost West. The now-massive pile of evidence gets a
little larger.
But in this race I think you're right, the front row guys being the ones
who will factor, and Lorenzo probably the most suspect, even with his
fastest race tire pace. Hayden will trail, and must hold off guys like
Edwards, Dovizioso, Toseland and Stoner. For the win, my pick is Rossi
at one of his best tracks, and the last place he won a race. And I kind
of get the feeling this could end up a rather processional race.