Shanghai race tire times

So here is the qualifying order in MotoGP:

1. Colin EDWARDS (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, 1:58.139
2. Valentino ROSSI (Yam YZR-M1), Bridgestone, 1:58.494
3. Casey STONER (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, 1:58.591
4. Jorge LORENZO (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, 1:58.711
5. Dani PEDROSA (Hon RC212V), Michelin, 1:58.855
6. Loris CAPIROSSI (Suz GSV-R), Bridgestone, 1:58.941
7. James TOSELAND (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, 1:59.254
8. Chris VERMEULEN (Suz GSV-R), Bridgestone, 1:59.325
9. Randy DE PUNIET (Hon RC212V), Michelin, 1:59.357, crash
10. Nicky HAYDEN (Hon RC212V), Michelin, 1:59.507, crash
11. Andrea DOVIZIOSO (Hon RC212V), Michelin, 1:59.559, crash
12. Marco MELANDRI (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, 1:59.678
13. Shinya NAKANO (Hon RC212V), Bridgestone, 1:59.716, crash
14. John HOPKINS (Kaw ZX-RR), Bridgestone, 1:59.740, crash
15. Toni ELIAS (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, 1:59.933
16. Alex DE ANGELIS (Hon RC212V), Bridgestone, 2:00.316
17. Sylvain GUINTOLI (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, 2:00.760
18. Anthony WEST (Kaw ZX-RR), Bridgestone, 2:00.838

Shanghai is a long lap, so not a huge number of race tire laps in the Q
session, so here are the 33 fastest race tire laps in yesterday's two
sessions, every lap under a 2:00.3, with the session indicated:

1. Rossi 1:59.690 (P3)
2. Pedrosa 1:59.693 (Q)
3. Pedrosa 1:59,738 (P3)
4. Rossi 1:59.766 (P3)
5. Pedrosa 1:59,837 (P3)
6. Pedrosa 1:59.838 (Q)
7. Stoner 1:59.908 (P3)
8. Stoner 1:59,956 (P3)
9. Rossi 1:59.968 (P3)
10. Stoner 1:59.980 (P3)
11. Stoner 1:59.983 (P3)
12. Rossi 1:59.998 (P3)
13. Stoner 2.00.065 (Q)
14. Edwards 2:00.102 (P3)
15. Rossi 2:00.109 (P3)
16. Edwards 2:00.127 (P3)
17. Edwards 2:00.135 (P3)
18. Nakano 2:00.141 (P3)
19. Edwards 2:00.143 (P3)
20. Rossi 2:00.147 (Q)
21. Stoner 2:00.148 (P3)
22. Edwards 2:00.157 (P3)
23. Pedrosa 2:00.163 (Q)
24. Rossi 2:00.166 (P3)
25. Stoner 2:00.174 (P3)
26. Stoner 2:00.178 (Q)
27. Pedrosa 2:00.190 (P3)
28. Pedrosa 2:00.206 (P3)
29. Pedrosa 2:00.220 (Q)
30. Nakano 2:00.252 (P3)
31. Stoner 2:00.292 (P3)
32. Rossi 2:00.294 (P3)
33. Pedrosa 2:00.295 (P3)

So that adds up to 9 for Pedrosa, 9 for Stoner, 8 for Rossi, 5 for
Edwards and 2 for Nakano. That breaks down to 14 for Michelin and 19 for
Bridgestone, so not as big of an edge as assumed there. Only 7 were in
the qualifying session, and Pedrosa was easily the fastest there.
Edwards did his usual metronome thing, hitting a hard wall at 2:00.1
(and didn't get under 2:01 in the Q).

My bet after Portugal was that the podium here would be Rossi, Stoner
and Hopkins, based on the tire balance shifting considerably. But here
is the first strong indication that Michelin has shifted that balance
materially this season, especially since the Hondas weren't supposed to
have the necessary power here.

What we can't see is what fuel consumption will do, or the race position
impact of those straights, or race tire wear. But this clearly shows the
expected podium will be Pedrosa, Rossi and Stoner, with Edwards again
trailing in 4th. Hopkins, starting in 14th with a best race tire lap of
00.55, has little chance, nor does Hayden in 10th with a best of 00.34.
Lorenzo's best race tire was an 00.73 (in the Q), and Capirossi an 00.35.

I guess I'll still pick Rossi for the win, but it looks like it could be
a closer race than I was thinking, no big edge indicated.

Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > Sat, 3 May 2008 10:12:06
>So here is the qualifying order in MotoGP:

Can I recommend * blogger.xs4all.nl/daisy/
Kropotkin Thinks. The guys got a way with words

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Mark N wrote:

> My bet after Portugal was that the podium here would be Rossi, Stoner
> and Hopkins, based on the tire balance shifting considerably. But here
> is the first strong indication that Michelin has shifted that balance
> materially this season, especially since the Hondas weren't supposed to
> have the necessary power here.
>
> What we can't see is what fuel consumption will do, or the race position
> impact of those straights, or race tire wear. But this clearly shows the
> expected podium will be Pedrosa, Rossi and Stoner, with Edwards again
> trailing in 4th. Hopkins, starting in 14th with a best race tire lap of
> 00.55, has little chance, nor does Hayden in 10th with a best of 00.34.
> Lorenzo's best race tire was an 00.73 (in the Q), and Capirossi an 00.35.
>
> I guess I'll still pick Rossi for the win, but it looks like it could be
> a closer race than I was thinking, no big edge indicated.

1. Valentino ROSSI (Yam YZR-M1), Bridgestone, 44:08.061
2. Dani PEDROSA (Hon RC212V), Michelin, -3.890 seconds
3. Casey STONER (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, -15.928
4. Jorge LORENZO (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, -22.494
5. Marco MELANDRI (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, -26.957
6. Nicky HAYDEN (Hon RC212V), Michelin, -28.369
7. Colin EDWARDS (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, -29.780
8. Toni ELIAS (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, -30.225
9. Loris CAPIROSSI (Suz GSV-R), Bridgestone, -31.440
10. Shinya NAKANO (Hon RC212V), Bridgestone, -35.969
11. Andrea DOVIZIOSO (Hon RC212V), Michelin, -36.246
12. James TOSELAND (Yam YZR-M1), Michelin, -43.191
13. Randy DE PUNIET (Hon RC212V), Michelin, -43.442
14. John HOPKINS (Kaw ZX-RR), Bridgestone, -45.855
15. Sylvain GUINTOLI (Duc GP08), Bridgestone, -46.330
16. Alex DE ANGELIS (Hon RC212V), Bridgstone, -50.593
17. Anthony WEST (Kaw ZX-RR), Bridgstone, -65.593
18. Chris VERMEULEN (Suz GSV-R), Bridgestone, -16 laps, retired

So maybe the least surprising thing about this race was the winner,
Rossi. The weekend eyebrow raisers were the solid performances of
Pedrosa and Michelin, the solid fourth by Lorenzo after going airborne
and breaking a lot of stuff below the knees, the comeback by forgotten
man Melandri in 5th, and on the negative side, that even though Stoner
finished on the box he was 12 seconds back of Pedrosa and never really
in it, and Hopkins way down in 14th on the track where he took his first
GP podium a year ago.

What the race confirmed was that this championship is down to the top
four finishers today. Stoner is a ways back, 25 points, and still needs
something to get his ship righted. Rossi remains my favorite until we
see what Honda's pneumi motor looks like and this year's Michelins get
tested a few more times. Right now the Yamaha is the best bike, and that
and Michelin's fast start my be most of what has kept Lorenzo right in
it. In the end I think it will come down to Rossi and Pedrosa, I just
don't see Stoner and Ducati coming back enough, and I don't see Honda
failing to close the gap to Yamaha and Pedrosa unable to outride Lorenzo
once they do.

Capirossi was the bright spot among the have-nots today, even though it
went wrong in the end. For Kawasaki it was close to a disaster, and will
it be Ant West's last ride? Hayden probably got about as much as he was
going to out of this weekend, but it must have been a bit galling to
finish behind Melandri, and another somewhat disappointing race day for
Edwards.

In terms of lap times, Rossi did seven laps faster than his fastest
practice lap, the best 0.4 faster, all in a nine-lap stretch that
decided the race. Pedrosa tried to hold him and did five better than his
and Rossi's practice best, but was broken four laps from the finish.
Stoner could not break two minutes flat, his best 0,15 second slower
than his practice best, which meant he wasn't in this race. Lorenzo did
ten straight laps under his practice best, during which time he went
from 8th to 4th.

"Mark N" <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote in message
news:pbOdnUkm6vUn9oPVnZ2dnUVZ_g6dnZ2d@giganews . com ...

> What the race confirmed was that this championship is down to the top four
> finishers today. Stoner is a ways back, 25 points, and still needs
> something to get his ship righted. Rossi remains my favorite until we see
> what Honda's pneumi motor looks like and this year's Michelins get tested
> a few more times. Right now the Yamaha is the best bike, and that and
> Michelin's fast start my be most of what has kept Lorenzo right in it. In
> the end I think it will come down to Rossi and Pedrosa, I just don't see
> Stoner and Ducati coming back enough, and I don't see Honda failing to
> close the gap to Yamaha and Pedrosa unable to outride Lorenzo once they
> do.
>

Mark,

Two years ago, Rossi was in a similar situation points-wise as Stoner is
now. In both situations you said that they needed a win in the worst way. Do
you make that assessment as the reigning title holder ought be at the top of
the podium from the very start of the season, that there is some additional
mental hurdle for a world champion to overcome with a slow start to the
season, that the rider has lost a bit of his intensity at the edge, or
something else?

Since non-rider part of the equation is the bike + tire, are Yamaha superior
on both tires? What about engine management? I can't recall if they were
working with Marelli or not. Have Yamaha caught up with Ducati in regard to
software?

In article <5suTj.31500$KJ1.16591@newsfe19.lga>, "Carl Sundquist" <carlsun@cox . net >
wrote:

> "Mark N" <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink . net > wrote in message
> news:pbOdnUkm6vUn9oPVnZ2dnUVZ_g6dnZ2d@giganews . com ...
>
> > What the race confirmed was that this championship is down to the top four
> > finishers today. Stoner is a ways back, 25 points, and still needs
> > something to get his ship righted. Rossi remains my favorite until we see
> > what Honda's pneumi motor looks like and this year's Michelins get tested
> > a few more times. Right now the Yamaha is the best bike, and that and
> > Michelin's fast start my be most of what has kept Lorenzo right in it. In
> > the end I think it will come down to Rossi and Pedrosa, I just don't see
> > Stoner and Ducati coming back enough, and I don't see Honda failing to
> > close the gap to Yamaha and Pedrosa unable to outride Lorenzo once they
> > do.
> >
>
> Mark,
>
> Two years ago, Rossi was in a similar situation points-wise as Stoner is
> now. In both situations you said that they needed a win in the worst way. Do
> you make that assessment as the reigning title holder ought be at the top of
> the podium from the very start of the season, that there is some additional
> mental hurdle for a world champion to overcome with a slow start to the
> season, that the rider has lost a bit of his intensity at the edge, or
> something else?
>
> Since non-rider part of the equation is the bike + tire, are Yamaha superior
> on both tires? What about engine management? I can't recall if they were
> working with Marelli or not. Have Yamaha caught up with Ducati in regard to
> software?

Yamaha is working with Marelli but I'm not sure they get the same stuff as Ducati.
At least, they may not have the same quality of communication as the Ducati people.

--
tanx,
Howard

Whatever happened to
Leon Trotsky?
He got an icepick
That made his ears burn.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Some weirdness.

- The wind was blowing down the back straight which pushed up the top
speeds but also meant people were missing the braking marker they should
have used and running wide or off the track. Including Rossi. Several
people did worse than they should have as a result.

- Pedrosa said his engine was over-revving and he was notably avoiding
getting in Rossi's slipstream. In the interviews he said he backed off
in the last few laps to preserve the engine. Is this a simple team
failure to get the gearing right? Or an excuse to cover up the engine
management leaning off the fuel to finish the race? Or an excuse to
cover up his inability to get past Rossi?

- Stoner got suckered by a Bridgestone technician into using a softer
rear tyre than he wanted which then didn't work. For the conspiracy
theorists, was this Bridgestone engineer called Jeremy Burgess
(indirectly of course)?

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Julian Bond wrote:
> Some weirdness.
>
> - The wind was blowing down the back straight which pushed up the top
> speeds but also meant people were missing the braking marker they should
> have used and running wide or off the track. Including Rossi. Several
> people did worse than they should have as a result.

Not to mention how gearing for the tail wind (or not) effected them in
the heat of battle.

> - Pedrosa said his engine was over-revving and he was notably avoiding
> getting in Rossi's slipstream. In the interviews he said he backed off
> in the last few laps to preserve the engine. Is this a simple team
> failure to get the gearing right? Or an excuse to cover up the engine
> management leaning off the fuel to finish the race? Or an excuse to
> cover up his inability to get past Rossi?

Or maybe he backed off once he saw he couldn't beat Rossi and started
paying attention to making sure he could at least get out of there with
the 20 points and the championship lead. I don't know all of what he's
said, but sometimes something that is simply a reality to the rider
comes off as an excuse. This is the quote I saw: "The wind was very
strong today, so my engine was over-revving, which is why I decided to
ride a little more conservatively in the final laps to secure second
place and the World Championship lead."

> - Stoner got suckered by a Bridgestone technician into using a softer
> rear tyre than he wanted which then didn't work. For the conspiracy
> theorists, was this Bridgestone engineer called Jeremy Burgess
> (indirectly of course)?

Unlikely, as Bridgestone was hardly seeking out Rossi last fall. More a
question of the decisionmaking by him and his team, I think.

Btw, thanks for the link to Kropotkin, just reading his race recap now.
I do like his style.

On 2008-05-05 03:03:03 -0400, Julian Bond <julian_bond@voidstar . com > said:

> Some weirdness.
>
> - The wind was blowing down the back straight which pushed up the top
> speeds but also meant people were missing the braking marker they
> should have used and running wide or off the track. Including Rossi.
> Several people did worse than they should have as a result.
>
> - Pedrosa said his engine was over-revving and he was notably avoiding
> getting in Rossi's slipstream. In the interviews he said he backed off
> in the last few laps to preserve the engine. Is this a simple team
> failure to get the gearing right? Or an excuse to cover up the engine
> management leaning off the fuel to finish the race? Or an excuse to
> cover up his inability to get past Rossi?

I duuno but it looked that he might have been lean race long, though
for sure in the latter stages and that might explain his hesitancy to
use the draft too, then again, it was could've been that Rossi just had
him covered...

Carl Sundquist wrote:
> "Mark N" wrote
>> What the race confirmed was that this championship is down to the top
>> four finishers today. Stoner is a ways back, 25 points, and still
>> needs something to get his ship righted. Rossi remains my favorite
>> until we see what Honda's pneumi motor looks like and this year's
>> Michelins get tested a few more times. Right now the Yamaha is the
>> best bike, and that and Michelin's fast start my be most of what has
>> kept Lorenzo right in it. In the end I think it will come down to
>> Rossi and Pedrosa, I just don't see Stoner and Ducati coming back
>> enough, and I don't see Honda failing to close the gap to Yamaha and
>> Pedrosa unable to outride Lorenzo once they do.
>
> Mark,
>
> Two years ago, Rossi was in a similar situation points-wise as Stoner is
> now. In both situations you said that they needed a win in the worst
> way. Do you make that assessment as the reigning title holder ought be
> at the top of the podium from the very start of the season, that there
> is some additional mental hurdle for a world champion to overcome with a
> slow start to the season, that the rider has lost a bit of his intensity
> at the edge, or something else?

Trying to relive past glory, eh, Carl? ;) As I said two years ago, I was
just using an expression, I didn't think Rossi was necessarily in real
trouble (yet), he'd had a near-DNF at Jerez and that was it. Stoner's
situation in terms of points might not be worse, but he's also not
Rossi, he's just won one very surprising championship that might well be
because he had the best bike and tires and his riding style happened to
fit them perfectly. This year it's a different ballgame, it's becoming
clear, so he has to show that he really is that good. I don't think he
is, I didn't think he was last year, and I think Ducati got it right in
a way they probably won't be able to duplicate. This was a race where
Stoner could have reestablished himself, and he simply didn't. In the
end he was closer to his teammate who has been struggling horribly than
he was to 2nd-place Pedrosa. Not entirely blaming him, but the old magic
simply wasn't there, bike and/or rider.

> Since non-rider part of the equation is the bike + tire, are Yamaha
> superior on both tires? What about engine management? I can't recall if
> they were working with Marelli or not. Have Yamaha caught up with Ducati
> in regard to software?

Who knows, but they do use the Marelli system. If Ducati is so
fundamentally superior I don't understand why Melandri has such problems
with it, which to me suggests again that things just aligned themselves
perfectly for Stoner last year. It appears to me that the Yamaha is the
best bike, it seems to handle very well and work well at each circuit,
in traditional Yamaha fashion, and they're not down much at all on top
speed to Ducati. Rossi obviously has managed to make the Bridgestones
work on it, and Lorenzo the Michelins, so obviously there isn't some
major mismatch between the tires and chassis so far.

Mark N wrote:
> Mark N wrote:

> In terms of lap times, Rossi did seven laps faster than his fastest
> practice lap, the best 0.4 faster, all in a nine-lap stretch that
> decided the race. Pedrosa tried to hold him and did five better than his
> and Rossi's practice best, but was broken four laps from the finish.
> Stoner could not break two minutes flat, his best 0,15 second slower
> than his practice best, which meant he wasn't in this race. Lorenzo did
> ten straight laps under his practice best, during which time he went
> from 8th to 4th.

[accidentally hit the send button]

Oddly, Melandri bested his top race tire practice lap only once - his
best time in P3 was only a 2:01.4, but he got down to a 2:00.539 in the
Q and his best race lap was a 00.451. So whatever breakthrough he made,
it was in the Q. Hayden was 0.2 second short of his practice best, and
Capirossi never got down to his either. Edwards' race best was a half
second slower than his practice best, and that lap was almost a half
second faster than any other he did, so you can see why he couldn't hold
the front. Nakano was similar, almost a full second off his practice best.

On the numbers count, here are the points:

1. Pedrosa 81
2. Lorenzo 74
3. Rossi 72
4. Stoner 56
5. TIE, Capirossi/Toseland 33
7. Edwards 31
8. Hayden 29
9. TIE, Dovizioso/Hopkins 26
11. Melandri 23
12. Nakano 22
13. Elias 15
14. Vermeulen 14
15. De Puniet 11
16. De Angelis 7
17. Guintoli 4
18. West 3

So the four Yamahas in the top seven. More important is the weigh-in:
the four winners this year now average 127 pounds (58kg), 5 under last
year's likely record low, and the podium finishers are now up to 126
pounds (57kg), still 10 pounds under last year's also likely record low...