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The season so far, part II
MotoGP may or may not come down to Vale vs. Dani, but we all know the
AMA Superbike championship will certainly come down to Mat vs. Ben, and
that's what it is so far. Setting all the NASBike talk aside for a
moment, I think the actual racing on the track deserves a closer look.
We all know Mladin came out hard at the start and won the first three
races, none terribly close. Then Spies won two at Fontana, the second by
the narrowest of margins after closing a 4-second gap over ten laps or
so, dramatic stuff. There's no reason that we shouldn't expect this
battle to last all season long and to go down to the last race again, a
rare opportunity to see two great racers on the top of their game going
head to head. Here's Mladin in today's Soup-posted interview:
"From the start of the race to forty minutes later, the difference
between Ben and I were eleven-one thousandths of a second, and he got it
right that day and I didn't. It was a close race, and he drafted down
the line. So, was there anything different? No, not really. Of course
the end result was different. You're going to see that between us,
there's not a lot in it. As evidenced last year, the championship was
decided by a point. Ben got seven wins and 12 seconds, and I got 12 wins
and a few seconds and a couple of crashes. In the end it was decided by
one point. Sunday's race was decided by eleven-one-thousandths of a
second... things are pretty close up in front between me and Ben."
But so much of the talk is how boring it all is, and I guess that's
mostly because they're on the same bike. Given that there is no rules
difference between Suzuki and the other factory teams and this isn't
Honda spending untold millions back in Japan building the fastest
possible superbikes, it really comes down to experience, consistent
commitment, talent and hard work. Spies is in his 8th year racing Suzuki
1000s and 5th on a Yosh SB (once in FX), while Mladin is in his 12th
season racing SBs at Yosh.
So what about the others? Hayden is in his 2nd year at Yosh and has
definitely stepped it up this year. But in his four straight 3rd-place
finishes his gap to the winner has averaged 24 seconds, while his gap to
4th has been 3.2 seconds. Hodgson is new to his team and back after a
year of relative inactivity. Hacking is in his 2nd year at Kawi, and 2nd
in SB after an absence of four years. Bostrom is also in his 2nd SB year
at his current team after a year out of SB, and DiSalvo is in his 2nd in
SB. RL Hayden is in his 3rd year in SB, all with Kawi, which leaves
Duhamel, in his 14th-straight with Honda in SB - shortly to turn 40.
On top of that, Yamaha has been back in only a bit over a year, and Kawi
a bit over two. Honda and Kawasaki are running new machines this year.
Kawasaki is working directly with the factory in Japan, Yamaha is
running bikes with work done by the WSB operation in Italy, and Honda is
still largely doing it on their own. So it's hard to say how much the
others are hurt by the lack of a consistent Japanese SB works building
the bikes they run, how much they are hurt by their lack of consistent
effort with the same basic team, and how much they are hurt by having
lesser riders. My guess is that the first is the least important, and
the second the most, but the third definitely very much at play.
The overall gap through five races between the winner and the first
non-Mladin/Spies rider has been averaging 22.3 seconds, and between the
winner and the first non-Suzuki 24.3 seconds. In the same five races
last year these average margins were 14 seconds, and in 2006 it was 11.5
seconds. So clearly it's getting worse, which says the other teams are
doing something wrong, or the Mladin-Spies rivalry is pushing them and
their teams to ever greater heights. Me, I think it's a bit of both, but
prefer to look at it positively and to enjoy the best rivalry in the
series since at least 1987, if not ever. And hope the others will come
to terms with their new machines.
The one non-Yosh guy who seems to have it working is DiSalvo, who has
certainly benefited by the new Euromaha. One would think that once
Bostrom finds a baseline setup and gets comfortable he could push even
further. Hodgson seems to be making progress, but it seems they have to
make progress on developing that bike as well. Hacking is perhaps as
disappointing as anyone, seemingly starting over where he was early last
year on the new machine, after his very solid second-half last year. I
assume the Haydens are out indefinitely, which really is horrible timing
for both - Tommy just when his confidence was building, and Roger just
when Ant West's future prospects on the Kawi in MotoGP are hitting
rock-bottom. Hopefully Rog will be able to do the two US rounds anyway,
and get in some testing beforehand.
One potential downside of the DMG fallout on the current series is, how
hard will the teams work to develop their SBs given that there is likely
little future benefit in doing so? The big payoff for these teams might
well have been 2009, but that's increasingly unlikely to happen now.
Like almost certain.
Up next is Sears, which is definitely a Mladin track. Down 20 points,
Spies can hardly afford to get swept by Mat, which would mean losing
another 11. After that is Miller, the last place a non-Suzuki won in SB
and a place that produces very fast, close racing. It's also been a
place where Spies held Mladin at bay the last two years, kind of a
critical point in both his championships. So it could be again.
The support classes are all looking good so far, with the featured
fights being between teammates Bostrom and Herrin in SSport (youth vs.
experience) and Zemke vs. Hayes in FX (both seething over their
exclusion from SB). But hardly the only fast guys in those classes. And
SStock looked to be going out as a Suzuki-dominated Yates cakewalk, but
so far has seen an average winning margin of 0.78 second and Honda's
first-ever win.
And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds. And the top three riders are 39, 35 and
36, with the only three riders under 30 in the top ten being Nieto
(remember him, the first Spaniard to win a 250 GP in over a decade? Only
in 2002, but it seems so long ago), Neukirchner and Lanzi, hardly
something to build a future on. Ducati has won three times the races as
all four Japanese OEMs put together, but apparently that's not enough to
get more weight added under the balanced WSB rules. Checa definitely
looks like the one hope to challenge Bayliss so far, other than the
usual and only occasional Haga (age 33) inspired effort. But, hey, the
racing is close - average winning margin 1.6 seconds.
And they will have lower lap times than AMA SB at Miller! Thanks to a
1.5-mile shorter lap...
AMA Superbike championship will certainly come down to Mat vs. Ben, and
that's what it is so far. Setting all the NASBike talk aside for a
moment, I think the actual racing on the track deserves a closer look.
We all know Mladin came out hard at the start and won the first three
races, none terribly close. Then Spies won two at Fontana, the second by
the narrowest of margins after closing a 4-second gap over ten laps or
so, dramatic stuff. There's no reason that we shouldn't expect this
battle to last all season long and to go down to the last race again, a
rare opportunity to see two great racers on the top of their game going
head to head. Here's Mladin in today's Soup-posted interview:
"From the start of the race to forty minutes later, the difference
between Ben and I were eleven-one thousandths of a second, and he got it
right that day and I didn't. It was a close race, and he drafted down
the line. So, was there anything different? No, not really. Of course
the end result was different. You're going to see that between us,
there's not a lot in it. As evidenced last year, the championship was
decided by a point. Ben got seven wins and 12 seconds, and I got 12 wins
and a few seconds and a couple of crashes. In the end it was decided by
one point. Sunday's race was decided by eleven-one-thousandths of a
second... things are pretty close up in front between me and Ben."
But so much of the talk is how boring it all is, and I guess that's
mostly because they're on the same bike. Given that there is no rules
difference between Suzuki and the other factory teams and this isn't
Honda spending untold millions back in Japan building the fastest
possible superbikes, it really comes down to experience, consistent
commitment, talent and hard work. Spies is in his 8th year racing Suzuki
1000s and 5th on a Yosh SB (once in FX), while Mladin is in his 12th
season racing SBs at Yosh.
So what about the others? Hayden is in his 2nd year at Yosh and has
definitely stepped it up this year. But in his four straight 3rd-place
finishes his gap to the winner has averaged 24 seconds, while his gap to
4th has been 3.2 seconds. Hodgson is new to his team and back after a
year of relative inactivity. Hacking is in his 2nd year at Kawi, and 2nd
in SB after an absence of four years. Bostrom is also in his 2nd SB year
at his current team after a year out of SB, and DiSalvo is in his 2nd in
SB. RL Hayden is in his 3rd year in SB, all with Kawi, which leaves
Duhamel, in his 14th-straight with Honda in SB - shortly to turn 40.
On top of that, Yamaha has been back in only a bit over a year, and Kawi
a bit over two. Honda and Kawasaki are running new machines this year.
Kawasaki is working directly with the factory in Japan, Yamaha is
running bikes with work done by the WSB operation in Italy, and Honda is
still largely doing it on their own. So it's hard to say how much the
others are hurt by the lack of a consistent Japanese SB works building
the bikes they run, how much they are hurt by their lack of consistent
effort with the same basic team, and how much they are hurt by having
lesser riders. My guess is that the first is the least important, and
the second the most, but the third definitely very much at play.
The overall gap through five races between the winner and the first
non-Mladin/Spies rider has been averaging 22.3 seconds, and between the
winner and the first non-Suzuki 24.3 seconds. In the same five races
last year these average margins were 14 seconds, and in 2006 it was 11.5
seconds. So clearly it's getting worse, which says the other teams are
doing something wrong, or the Mladin-Spies rivalry is pushing them and
their teams to ever greater heights. Me, I think it's a bit of both, but
prefer to look at it positively and to enjoy the best rivalry in the
series since at least 1987, if not ever. And hope the others will come
to terms with their new machines.
The one non-Yosh guy who seems to have it working is DiSalvo, who has
certainly benefited by the new Euromaha. One would think that once
Bostrom finds a baseline setup and gets comfortable he could push even
further. Hodgson seems to be making progress, but it seems they have to
make progress on developing that bike as well. Hacking is perhaps as
disappointing as anyone, seemingly starting over where he was early last
year on the new machine, after his very solid second-half last year. I
assume the Haydens are out indefinitely, which really is horrible timing
for both - Tommy just when his confidence was building, and Roger just
when Ant West's future prospects on the Kawi in MotoGP are hitting
rock-bottom. Hopefully Rog will be able to do the two US rounds anyway,
and get in some testing beforehand.
One potential downside of the DMG fallout on the current series is, how
hard will the teams work to develop their SBs given that there is likely
little future benefit in doing so? The big payoff for these teams might
well have been 2009, but that's increasingly unlikely to happen now.
Like almost certain.
Up next is Sears, which is definitely a Mladin track. Down 20 points,
Spies can hardly afford to get swept by Mat, which would mean losing
another 11. After that is Miller, the last place a non-Suzuki won in SB
and a place that produces very fast, close racing. It's also been a
place where Spies held Mladin at bay the last two years, kind of a
critical point in both his championships. So it could be again.
The support classes are all looking good so far, with the featured
fights being between teammates Bostrom and Herrin in SSport (youth vs.
experience) and Zemke vs. Hayes in FX (both seething over their
exclusion from SB). But hardly the only fast guys in those classes. And
SStock looked to be going out as a Suzuki-dominated Yates cakewalk, but
so far has seen an average winning margin of 0.78 second and Honda's
first-ever win.
And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds. And the top three riders are 39, 35 and
36, with the only three riders under 30 in the top ten being Nieto
(remember him, the first Spaniard to win a 250 GP in over a decade? Only
in 2002, but it seems so long ago), Neukirchner and Lanzi, hardly
something to build a future on. Ducati has won three times the races as
all four Japanese OEMs put together, but apparently that's not enough to
get more weight added under the balanced WSB rules. Checa definitely
looks like the one hope to challenge Bayliss so far, other than the
usual and only occasional Haga (age 33) inspired effort. But, hey, the
racing is close - average winning margin 1.6 seconds.
And they will have lower lap times than AMA SB at Miller! Thanks to a
1.5-mile shorter lap...
On Thu, 08 May 2008 22:01:23 -0700, Mark N
<menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink.net> wrote:
>And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
>won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
--
Champ
neal at champ dot org dot uk
<menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink.net> wrote:
>And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
>won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
--
Champ
neal at champ dot org dot uk
Champ wrote:
> Mark N wrote:
>
>> And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>> something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
>> won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
>
> You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
Ah, but through 4 rounds, 8 races he led Edwards by only 24 points, 174
to 150. There was no question that Colin was right there if Bayliss
faltered even just a little, and that's just not the case so far this year.
> Mark N wrote:
>
>> And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>> something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and he's
>> won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
>
> You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
Ah, but through 4 rounds, 8 races he led Edwards by only 24 points, 174
to 150. There was no question that Colin was right there if Bayliss
faltered even just a little, and that's just not the case so far this year.
Mark N <menusbaum@NYETSPAMearthlink.net> Fri, 9 May 2008 07:56:10
>Champ wrote:
>> Mark N wrote:
>>
>>> And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>>>something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and
>>>he's won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
>> You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
>
>Ah, but through 4 rounds, 8 races he led Edwards by only 24 points, 174
>to 150. There was no question that Colin was right there if Bayliss
>faltered even just a little, and that's just not the case so far this
>year.
And his lead is as much to do with the others taking it in turns to have
terrible days as to him winning.
So what if Bayliss wins and retires and Shakey Byrne dominates and wins
BSB. Does Shakey get the #1 Ducati WSB ride?
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Contains Flammable Gas Under Pressure
>Champ wrote:
>> Mark N wrote:
>>
>>> And then there's WSB. Bayliss pretty much has it won already, unless
>>>something disastrous happens, with a 70-point lead over Checa, and
>>>he's won 5 of 8 races with 2 seconds.
>> You're right, but plenty of people said that in 2002 as well :-)
>
>Ah, but through 4 rounds, 8 races he led Edwards by only 24 points, 174
>to 150. There was no question that Colin was right there if Bayliss
>faltered even just a little, and that's just not the case so far this
>year.
And his lead is as much to do with the others taking it in turns to have
terrible days as to him winning.
So what if Bayliss wins and retires and Shakey Byrne dominates and wins
BSB. Does Shakey get the #1 Ducati WSB ride?
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Contains Flammable Gas Under Pressure
